Hormuz tensions lift oil
Reports that the U.S. is planning a blockade near the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher and rattled markets, with traders openly discussing the prospect of oil at $115 a barrel. At the same time, a report said President Trump warned he could impose 50% tariffs on China if Beijing were found to be supplying military support to Iran, tying trade threats to the security escalation. (gulfnews.com) (cnbc.com)
Oil jumped above $100 a barrel on Monday, April 13, after reports said the United States was preparing a blockade around the Strait of Hormuz. (gulfnews.com) Gulf News reported traders were openly discussing oil at $115 a barrel, while CNBC said Dow futures fell 500 points as crude spiked again. President Donald Trump also said on Sunday that countries supplying weapons to Iran could face a 50% United States tariff. (gulfnews.com) (cnbc.com) CNBC reported Trump’s latest threat was aimed at China after a report said Beijing was preparing to send Iran new air-defense systems. Trump said he doubted China would do it, but said a 50% tariff would apply “immediately” if it did. (cnbc.com) The waterway at the center of the move is one of the world’s main oil choke points. The United States Energy Information Administration said 20 million barrels a day moved through Hormuz in 2024, equal to about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. (eia.gov) The International Energy Agency said nearly 15 million barrels a day of crude, or 34% of global crude oil trade, passed through Hormuz in 2025. It said China and India together received 44% of those exports, which helps explain why any threat there hits Asian buyers first. (iea.org) This price shock did not start on Monday. The Energy Information Administration said Middle East production shut-ins averaged 7.5 million barrels a day in March and could reach 9.1 million barrels a day in April as the closure persists. (eia.gov) Gulf News reported on April 10 that shipping companies were still waiting for explicit security guarantees before sending vessels back through the strait, even after a fragile ceasefire. Earlier, on March 20, the same outlet reported a 95% drop in Hormuz traffic after the United States and Israel struck Iran on February 28. (gulfnews.com 1) (gulfnews.com 2) The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said on March 20 that the closure of Hormuz was already a geopolitically driven oil-supply disruption with global economic effects. Monday’s move tied that energy shock more tightly to United States-China trade policy. (dallasfed.org) The next test is whether the blockade is enforced long enough to cut more exports, or whether the tariff threat forces Beijing to back away from any support for Tehran. For now, traders are pricing the risk that both pressures rise at once. (cnbc.com) (gulfnews.com)
