CSU’s early hurricane numbers

Colorado State University’s first 2026 hurricane outlook came in lower than the numbers people got used to during the recent run of busy Atlantic seasons: 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Colorado State released that forecast on April 9 and compared it with a 1991–2020 average of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes. (colostate.edu) The reason sits thousands of miles away in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Colorado State says weak La Niña conditions are likely to fade and give way to El Niño in the next few months, possibly reaching moderate or strong levels by the peak of hurricane season. (colostate.edu) El Niño is the warm phase of a climate pattern called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which is a back-and-forth shift in Pacific Ocean temperatures and winds every 2 to 7 years. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says those shifts can change weather far beyond the Pacific itself. (noaa.gov) (climate.gov) For the Atlantic, El Niño usually works like a hand pushing against storm growth. Colorado State expects it to increase vertical wind shear, which means winds change speed or direction with height and can tilt a developing hurricane enough to disrupt its core. (colostate.edu) That lower storm count does not mean a quiet coastline. Colorado State says it still takes only one hurricane making landfall to turn a season into a disaster for the place it hits. (colostate.edu) The forecast also tracks something called accumulated cyclone energy, which is a season-long measure of how much wind energy storms build up over time. Colorado State put 2026 at 90 units, below the 1991–2020 average of 123, which points to fewer long-lived or intense storms across the basin. (colostate.edu) There is a useful recent example of why seasonal totals can mislead people. Colorado State’s page says the 2025 Atlantic season had 13 named storms, only 5 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, which shows a season can have a modest storm count and still produce several very strong systems. (colostate.edu) For travelers, the practical takeaway is not “book without worry.” The Atlantic hurricane season still runs from June 1 through November 30, and Colorado State has already scheduled forecast updates for June 10, July 8, and August 5 because ocean and wind patterns can shift as summer unfolds. (colostate.edu) So the early read for 2026 is lower odds, not zero odds. If you are planning cruises, Caribbean trips, or Gulf Coast travel for August through October, the smarter bet is still refundable rooms, flexible flights, and a backup route if a single storm bends toward your destination. (colostate.edu)