Cocoa prices swing before Easter
Cocoa futures moved sharply this week: a notable plunge on April 14 rekindled hope that chocolate costs could ease, while market notes from April 13 showed New York and London contracts up on macro pressure. GuruFocus reported the April 14 drop and optimism for cheaper cocoa (gurufocus.com), while TradingView and Barchart recorded gains on April 13 tied to Strait‑of‑Hormuz and dollar moves ( ). At retail there’s an early sign of cheaper shelf prices — shoppers flagged an iconic chocolate selling for £1 at B&M stores (cambridge-news.co.uk).
Cocoa prices whipsawed in the two days before Easter, with New York futures falling sharply on Tuesday, April 14, after rising on Monday, April 13. (gurufocus.com; barchart.com) On Monday, May New York cocoa closed up 32 points, or 0.99%, and May London cocoa closed up 28 points, or 1.16%, according to Barchart’s market note. A separate Barchart note said earlier in the session that May New York cocoa was up 24 points and London was up 20 points as traders reacted to a weaker dollar and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. (barchart.com; barchart.com) By Tuesday, GuruFocus said New York cocoa prices were about 75% below their peak, a drop it linked to weaker demand and improved harvests. The report said that shift had revived hopes that manufacturers would process more beans and that candy prices could soften over time. (gurufocus.com) The market is now being pulled by two forces at once: bigger bean supplies and weaker chocolate demand on one side, and geopolitical and currency shocks on the other. Barchart said Ivory Coast farmers had shipped 1.46 million metric tons of cocoa to ports between October 1, 2025 and April 12, 2026, up 0.7% from a year earlier. (barchart.com; barchart.com) Stocks in exchange warehouses are also higher. Barchart said ICE-monitored cocoa inventories rose to a 19.5-month high of 2,540,983 bags last Friday, a supply signal that has weighed on prices even as short-covering rallies flare up. (barchart.com; barchart.com) Demand has cooled after the price shock of the past year. J.P. Morgan said second-quarter 2025 cocoa grindings fell 7.2% year over year in Europe, 16% in Asia and 2.8% in North America, a sign that manufacturers were buying and processing less cocoa. (jpmorgan.com) Chocolate makers have warned that cheaper futures do not translate into cheaper candy overnight. Reuters reported in February that Mondelez had already sourced cocoa for 2026 at prices above the current market, limiting how quickly it could cut shelf prices after multiple rounds of increases. (newsbreak.com) There are early signs of discounting at the store level. Cambridge News reported on Tuesday that B&M was selling Cadbury Mini Eggs for £1, with shoppers comparing the price to pre-inflation years after packs had recently sold for as much as £4. (cambridge-news.co.uk) For now, the Easter chocolate aisle is showing both timelines at once: futures are down hard from their highs, but retail prices are easing unevenly, one promotion at a time. (gurufocus.com; cambridge-news.co.uk)
