Conflict ramps up energy policy pressure
The Middle East war’s fuel shocks are being billed as a ‘strategic wake‑up call’ — UN climate chief Simon Stiell urged governments to accelerate renewables after recent oil and gas price spikes argued. European industry is already debating how carbon costs will reshape steel competitiveness and investment at the Steel Summit reported, while South Africa is actively seeking new fuel suppliers as import risks rise from the conflict reported.
Simon Stiell told([unfccc.int)] delegates at the Green Growth Summit in Brussels on March 16, 2026 that fossil‑fuel dependency “is ripping away national security,” and he flagged that Europe’s fossil‑fuel bill topped about €420 billion in 2024. Brent crude briefly spiked near $119 a barrel in early March as shipping attacks escalated([aljazeera.com)], and Brent later closed at $103.14 on March 13 amid sustained supply fears([cnbc.com)]. European gas benchmarks have surged even more sharply — Dutch TTF futures jumped by roughly 60% since late February as LNG flows and Gulf shipments were disrupted([aljazeera.com)]. Industry gatherings are reacting: the Steel Summit and the 4th European Green Steel Summit are centring sessions on how carbon costs, the EU Green Deal and CBAM will change trade and investment decisions for steelmakers([eurometal.net)]. Think‑tank modelling puts a near‑term price on the shock: analysts at Strategic Perspectives estimated the recent energy spike added about €1.3 billion to Europe’s energy bill in just one week of market stress([energyconnects.com)]. South Africa has opened talks to secure alternate fuel suppliers amid import risks, according to reporting that the government is seeking new sources as Gulf shipments slow([bloomberg.com)]; Mineral Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe said the government is “in talks” and has not yet drawn on the Strategic Fuel Fund’s roughly eight million barrels of crude([scrolla.africa)]. Policymakers are split on responses: South Africa’s minister has pushed to fast‑track domestic oil and gas projects as a buffer([mg.co.za)], even as the UNFCCC argues renewables provide strategic insulation because “sunlight doesn’t depend on narrow and vulnerable shipping straits.” (unfccc.int)
