Supply chains show new stress

Packaging buyers and manufacturers are bracing for longer lead times and higher costs as the Iran conflict and new United States tariffs hit the same supply chains at once. (unctad.org) The Strait of Hormuz is “practically closed,” according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, with ship transits falling from 129 a day in February to 6 a day in March, a 95% drop. The agency said the disruption is now spilling into maritime routes, air cargo and port logistics. (unctad.org) That waterway carries oil, liquefied natural gas, chemicals and petrochemicals used across manufacturing, and Sidley Austin said the shock is already raising fuel, electricity and industrial input costs beyond the Gulf. The firm said war-risk insurance jumped from about 0.2% of ship value to as much as 1%, while some insurers pulled coverage. (sidley.com) For packaging, the tariff side changed again on April 7, when updated Section 232 rules took effect. A 50% tariff remains on goods made almost entirely of aluminum, steel or copper, while derivative products “substantially made” from those metals now face 25%, and items with 15% or less metal content are exempt. (packagingdive.com) Trade groups said the changes left major packaging inputs exposed. The Brewers Association said aluminum sheet, foil and containers used in members’ packaging will still face the 50% rate, and the Can Manufacturers Institute said domestic canmakers rely on trading partners for nearly 80% of tin mill steel. (packagingdive.com) The broader tariff backdrop shifted on February 20, when the Office of the United States Trade Representative posted a presidential action imposing a temporary import surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. That came on top of a 2025-2026 trade agenda that has repeatedly changed rates, exemptions and country-specific deals. (ustr.gov) United States factory data already show the strain. The Institute for Supply Management said its March 2026 Prices Index rose to 78.3, the highest reading since June 2022, while the Supplier Deliveries Index climbed to 58.9, meaning deliveries slowed for a fourth straight month. (ismworld.org) The same March report showed customers’ inventories at 40.1, which the Institute for Supply Management classifies as too low, while new export orders slipped back into contraction at 49.9. That mix leaves exporters and consumer brands paying more for inputs while carrying less buffer stock. (ismworld.org) Packaging executives entered 2026 expecting a difficult year even before the Gulf fighting intensified. Packaging Dive reported in February that manufacturers were already navigating a “still-evolving tariffs landscape,” and in November cited a Paperboard Packaging Council report saying tariffs and policy changes had disrupted the expected recovery in folding cartons. (packagingdive.com 1) (packagingdive.com 2) If the Hormuz disruption lasts and tariff rules keep shifting, the pressure will keep showing up in ordinary items: cans, cartons, labels, foil, freight bills and the delivery dates brands promise retailers. (unctad.org)