RealGM: favorites above 80% to advance

The NBA story here is simple — the second round got lopsided fast. By Friday morning, betting markets had all four conference-semifinal favorites above 80% to advance. Then Friday night made that shape even clearer, with the Knicks pushing the 76ers to the brink and the Timberwolves flipping the one series that still felt unsettled. ### What did RealGM actually flag? The RealGM roundup from Friday, May 8 pulled together where the odds stood after the first two games of each series. Three matchups were already 2-0 — Thunder over Lakers, Knicks over 76ers, and Pistons over Cavaliers. The only split series was Spurs-Timberwolves at 1-1, but even there San Antonio was still the market favorite at the time. (basketball.realgm.com) ### Why were the Thunder so far ahead? Oklahoma City was the extreme case. RealGM had the Thunder at -10000 to beat the Lakers, which works out to about a 99% implied chance to advance. That is basically the market saying the series is over unless something bizarre happens. The extra context matters too — the Lakers were dealing with Luka Doncic being out, and Oklahoma City had built this cushion without needing peak Shai Gilgeous-Alexander every night. (basketball.realgm.com) ### What about the Knicks? The Knicks were the East version of the same trend. They opened the series by blasting Philadelphia, then held on in Game 2, and RealGM put New York at -1000 — about a 90% implied chance to move on. Friday night only hardened that view, because New York beat the 76ers 108-94 to go up 3-0. At that point the question stops being “can the Knicks control this series?” and becomes “can Philadelphia extend it at all?” (basketball.realgm.com) ### Were the Pistons really in that group? Yes — but as the least overwhelming favorite of the four. Detroit had won both home games against Cleveland, and RealGM pegged the Pistons at -400, or roughly an 80% chance to advance. That is still a strong position, just not the same near-lock territory as Oklahoma City or even New York. So the East had one probable rout and one series that still had some room for stress. (basketball.realgm.com) ### What changed Friday night? Friday gave the bracket a split result. The Knicks strengthened the favorite-heavy picture by going up 3-0 on Philadelphia. But the Timberwolves beat the Spurs and took a 2-1 lead, which means the one matchup that looked most competitive is now also the one most likely to swing back and forth. NBA.com’s bracket reflected those updated series counts by Saturday morning. (basketball.realgm.com) ### Why is Spurs-Wolves the interesting one? Because it is the only series still behaving like a real second-round fight. Game 1 already hinted at that — Minnesota lost 104-102 even with Victor Wembanyama posting 11 points, 15 rebounds, and 12 blocks, an all-time playoff single-game blocks record. That kind of chaos is what the other three series have mostly lacked. One bounce, one shooting swing, one foul-trouble game — and this matchup can still turn. (bleacherreport.com) ### Does this also change the title picture? Very much. RealGM noted Oklahoma City was already the championship favorite at -175, ahead of San Antonio at +350, the Knicks at +850, and Detroit at +1500. So this is not just about who survives the round. It is about a postseason field that, at least for now, looks increasingly tilted toward a small top tier — with the Thunder sitting on top of it. (nba.com) ### Bottom line Basically, the odds were telling everyone the second round was drifting toward chalk, and Friday mostly confirmed it. The Knicks are on the verge, the Thunder still look untouchable, Detroit has real control, and Minnesota-Spurs is left carrying most of the suspense. (basketball.realgm.com)