NOAA to use Black Swift drone data

NOAA said on May 19 that it will begin using data from Black Swift Technologies’ S0 drone in its operational hurricane forecast model during the 2026 season. The agency said it is the first time data from a small uncrewed aircraft system will be integrated into operational intensity forecasts, a step aimed at improving one of the hardest parts of hurricane prediction. The data will feed NOAA’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, or HAFS, the agency’s next-generation operational hurricane model. NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory said the change follows testing, data-quality evaluation and work to transmit the observations in real time. ### What exactly is NOAA adding to its forecast model? Black Swift Technologies’ S0 is a small uncrewed aircraft system launched from NOAA’s WP-3D Orion hurricane hunter aircraft. NOAA said the 2.6-pound system collects atmospheric observations including pressure, temperature, humidity and wind, along with ocean measurements including waves and sea-surface temperature. (aoml.noaa.gov) AOML said the S0 is designed to sample the marine boundary layer, the near-surface part of the storm environment where crewed aircraft generally do not fly because conditions are too dangerous. NOAA said those observations offer data from a part of hurricanes where heat, momentum and moisture are exchanged between the ocean and atmosphere. (aoml.noaa.gov) ### Why does NOAA think this will help intensity forecasts? Scientists from the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory tested the effect of the drone data in retrospective HAFS experiments. NOAA said those tests covered 10 tropical cyclones from 2022 through 2025, comparing runs with and without the small-drone observations. (aoml.noaa.gov) AOML said HAFS intensity forecasts improved by about 10% overall when the S0 data was included, and by as much as 25% for tropical storms. The lab also said traditional hurricane hunter data already improves forecast accuracy by up to 20% overall, and that the S0 data adds to those gains. ### Where did this drone come from? NOAA first publicized a Black Swift S0 deployment into Tropical Storm Tammy in October 2023. (aoml.noaa.gov) AOML said the drone flew as low as 100 feet above sea level during a one-hour-and-11-minute mission, which the agency described as the second-longest air-deployed uncrewed aircraft mission ever. Joe Cione, NOAA’s lead meteorologist for emerging technologies, said at the time that the partnership with Black Swift Technologies was intended to improve future hurricane forecasts and protect lives and property. (aoml.noaa.gov) AOML also said in 2023 that the goal was to provide NOAA scientists with real-time, near-surface atmospheric data in and around tropical cyclones and eventually integrate those observations into National Weather Service models. (aoml.noaa.gov) ### How does this fit into NOAA’s broader hurricane program? NOAA’s 2026 Hurricane Field Program says its APHEX research effort is designed to improve prediction of hurricane track, intensity, structure and hazards by collecting observations that can improve operational models such as HAFS. The program is run with partners including NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center, National Hurricane Center and Aircraft Operations Center. (aoml.noaa.gov) The National Hurricane Center said on May 20 that there were no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at that time, with the Atlantic season set to begin on June 1 and end on Nov. 30. NOAA said it will present its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on Thursday, May 21, at the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Florida, and virtually. (nhc.noaa.gov) (aoml.noaa.gov)