Consumer Spending Pulls Back at Restaurants
Consumers are getting tired of pricey "slop bowls" — restaurant chains specializing in salad and grain bowls are reporting falling sales and traffic. The trend is seen as a sign of a broader pullback in discretionary spending amid rising prices and economic uncertainty.
The "slop bowl" concept, once a dominant force in fast-casual dining, is facing significant headwinds as consumers re-evaluate their spending habits. Chains like Chipotle, Sweetgreen, and Cava have seen a combined loss of $48 billion in market value in 2025. This downturn is attributed to rising prices, with a Chipotle chicken bowl increasing nearly 45% in price since 2019. Consumers are now often opting for more affordable alternatives or choosing casual-dining restaurants that offer a full-service experience for a comparable price. While fast-casual bowl meals are approaching the $15-$20 range, sit-down chains like Chili's are attracting customers with meal deals starting around $10.99. This has led to a 5.1% increase in same-store sales for casual dining in the second quarter, while quick-service sales saw a decline. Sweetgreen, in particular, has been hit hard, with a comparable sales decline of 11.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and a stock price that has plummeted 87% from its peak in late 2024. The company's forecast for 2026 anticipates a continued decline in same-store sales of 2% to 4%. In response, Sweetgreen is introducing wraps to its menu in an effort to attract customers. Chipotle is also experiencing a slump, with a 3.2% decrease in transactions in the fourth quarter and a 1.7% drop in comparable sales for the full year of 2025. To win back customers, Chipotle plans to absorb some of the rising ingredient and labor costs, raising its menu prices at a rate below inflation in 2026. The company is also focusing on menu innovation, such as bringing back Chicken al Pastor, to drive traffic. The broader restaurant industry is bracing for a challenging 2026, with the National Restaurant Association forecasting modest real sales growth of 1.3%. Persistent inflation and economic uncertainty are expected to continue to pressure restaurant operators and influence consumer dining choices.
