Warnings of an export‑control arms race
Think‑tanks and analysts are warning that export controls are escalating into a global 'arms race', with China imposing tighter export rules that mirror US measures and lists covering thousands of firms. Observers say this intensifying use of trade‑policy tools could reshape standards participation and supply‑chain politics. ( )
Washington and Beijing are turning export controls into a tit-for-tat contest that now reaches far beyond a few chipmakers. (csis.org) The United States kept expanding its blacklist in 2025, including 80 entities added on March 25 for activities tied to advanced computing, artificial intelligence, hypersonics, unmanned aerial vehicles and nuclear work. (bis.gov) In September 2025, the Commerce Department also issued an affiliates rule that would extend controls to companies that are 50 percent or more owned by a listed entity. Moody’s estimated that would raise the number of affected entities from fewer than 4,000 to nearly 21,000 worldwide before Washington paused enforcement until November 10, 2026. (moodys.com) China answered with its own lists in April 2025. Beijing added 16 United States entities to an export control list on April 4, 12 more on April 9, 11 firms to its unreliable entity list on April 4, and six more on April 9. (chinadaily.com.cn; mofcom.gov.cn; english.scio.gov.cn; mofcom.gov.cn) Those tools work like a licensing choke point: once a company is listed, exporters may be barred from shipping goods that have both civilian and military uses, or forced to seek case-by-case approval first. (federalregister.gov; chinadaily.com.cn) Analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said on April 10 that export controls are shifting from a narrow national-security tool toward a bargaining instrument in trade talks, and warned that the back-and-forth is becoming an “arms race.” (csis.org) That warning comes as both governments keep building legal machinery around supply chains. China’s State Council issued industrial and supply chain security regulations on April 7, 2026, and they took effect the same day. (gov.cn) The immediate targets are companies, but the wider pressure falls on standards groups, suppliers and customers that now have to ask whether a partner, subsidiary or end user could trigger a license problem. Moody’s said Europe, Russia, China and Iran all contain large numbers of affiliates that could be swept in by ownership-based rules. (moodys.com) There has also been some tactical easing. On May 15, 2025, China said it would suspend for 90 days the measures that had put 28 United States entities on its export control list and 17 on its unreliable entity list, while still requiring applications for some transactions. (chinadaily.com.cn) The result is a system in which the lists can expand quickly, pause suddenly and still leave companies redesigning compliance checks and supply chains around the risk of the next round. (csis.org; moodys.com)
