Home Depot posts steady outlook, scrutiny

Home Depot is still being judged on two different scorecards. One is the familiar one — can a giant home-improvement chain keep growing while housing stays soft and big renovation projects remain uneven. The other is newer — what responsibilities come with all the customer and location data that modern retail now touches. That second question got louder ahead of Home Depot’s May 21, 2026 annual meeting, just as analysts settled into a pretty steady view of the company’s near-term finances. ### Why does the outlook look “steady”? Because nobody is modeling a breakout year, but nobody is modeling a collapse either. Analyst estimates compiled this month sit around $164.7 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue and roughly $14.26 in earnings per share. That implies modest top-line growth from the roughly $159.5 billion Home Depot posted in fiscal 2025, with profits still under some pressure from costs, mix, and a slower housing backdrop. (marketscreener.com) ### What is Home Depot itself guiding? The company’s own frame has been cautious but not alarmed. After its February results, Home Depot reiterated an outlook that pointed to about 3% sales growth and earnings that could range from roughly flat to up 4%, depending on the measure. Basically, management is saying demand is not great, but the business is stable enough to keep inching forward. (marketscreener.com) ### Why is housing still the drag? Home Depot lives downstream from housing turnover, remodeling appetite, and contractor activity. When mortgage rates stay high and people move less, the big-ticket projects tend to get delayed. Smaller repair and maintenance work still happens, and professional customers help cushion the blow, but the easy pandemic-era spending tailwind is gone. That is why a “steady” forecast matters here — it signals resilience, not acceleration. (nasdaq.com) ### So what changed on the governance side? A shareholder proposal from Zevin Asset Management put customer-data privacy directly on the ballot for the 2026 meeting. The proposal asks Home Depot’s board to produce a report assessing risks to customers’ privacy rights from sharing sensitive customer data with third parties, and to explain mitigation steps that go beyond bare legal compliance. Home Depot’s board has recommended voting against it. (simplywall.st) ### Why is Flock Safety at the center? Zevin’s campaign ties the issue to Home Depot’s use of Flock Safety, a surveillance technology vendor better known for automated license-plate-reader networks. The argument is not just “data privacy” in the abstract. It is that location and surveillance systems can become accessible through law-enforcement channels in ways customers never really expect, including immigration-enforcement access routed through local police intermediaries. That turns a routine governance proposal into a much more politically charged question about customer risk. (sec.gov) ### Is this financially material right now? Probably not in the immediate earnings-model sense. This is not the kind of proposal that changes next quarter’s comp sales. But it can matter in slower, more cumulative ways — reputation, customer trust, employee pressure, and the kind of governance scrutiny that large retailers increasingly face as stores become more digitized and more surveilled. I’m inferring the market still sees this as secondary because analyst coverage remains centered on revenue growth, EPS, and demand recovery rather than a privacy-driven hit to valuation. (zevin.com) ### Why are investors watching both stories together? Because they describe the company’s real position. Home Depot is not in crisis. The business still looks durable enough for analysts to pencil in incremental growth next year. But the scrutiny is broadening. Investors are no longer asking only whether Home Depot can sell more lumber, appliances, and contractor supplies in a weak housing market. They are also asking what kind of digital footprint the company is building around those sales — and what risks come with it. (marketscreener.com) ### Bottom line? The cleanest read is this: Home Depot’s operating story is stable, while its governance story is getting messier. If housing improves, the earnings case gets easier. If privacy and surveillance concerns keep climbing the shareholder agenda, management may find that steady sales are no longer enough to settle the bigger argument. (marketscreener.com)