Semiconductor bottleneck shifts
- ASML raised its 2026 revenue guidance after surging demand for AI and memory-related chip equipment. - SK Hynix posted a five-fold quarterly operating profit jump, while TSMC said it will delay adopting high‑NA EUV lithography tools. - Markets and suppliers are now debating whether memory capacity, tool adoption timing, or customer capex will become the primary constraint ( ).
The semiconductor squeeze is moving again: chipmakers are buying more tools for artificial intelligence memory, while the priciest new lithography machines are being pushed back. (asml.com) ASML said on April 15 that it now expects 2026 sales of €36 billion to €40 billion, up from its earlier €30 billion to €35 billion range, after first-quarter net sales of €8.8 billion and net income of €2.8 billion. Chief executive Christophe Fouquet said demand was being driven “primarily by AI-related infrastructure investment.” (asml.com) SK Hynix said on April 23 that first-quarter revenue reached 52.6 trillion won and operating profit hit 37.6 trillion won, both records, with a 72% operating margin. Reuters reported that operating profit was more than five times higher than a year earlier as demand for high-bandwidth memory, the stacked memory used with AI chips, stayed strong. (news.skhynix.com, msn.com) TSMC said this week it does not plan to use ASML’s high-numerical-aperture extreme ultraviolet machines in volume production before 2029. Reuters reported that TSMC deputy co-chief operating officer Kevin Zhang said the tools were too expensive for the company’s next manufacturing steps. (msn.com, msn.com) Lithography tools are the machines that project circuit patterns onto silicon, like a stencil for chips. High-NA EUV is ASML’s newest version, designed to print smaller features with fewer steps, but Bloomberg reported each system costs more than €350 million. (msn.com) That leaves the bottleneck in a different place than it was during the last chip shortage. Instead of the main question being whether foundries can print smaller chips, the immediate pressure is whether memory makers can add enough advanced capacity and whether customers will keep spending at the current pace. (asml.com, news.skhynix.com) ASML’s own numbers point to that split. The company said it sold 67 new lithography systems in the first quarter and lifted its 2026 outlook, but CNBC reported its shares still fell on April 15 as investors weighed tighter China export restrictions against the stronger guidance. (asml.com, cnbc.com) SK Hynix, by contrast, is signaling that the memory side is already tight. CNBC reported the company said chip shortages could persist to 2030 because capacity expansion is slow, even as prices for AI memory products keep rising. (cnbc.com) TSMC is making the opposite argument on tools: it can keep shrinking chips without paying for the newest scanner yet. At its North America technology symposium, the company said its A14 process can deliver speed, power and logic-density gains using existing approaches before high-NA EUV becomes economical. (msn.com) The result is a supply chain with three clocks running at once: memory makers racing to add output, equipment suppliers booking AI orders now, and leading foundries waiting for cheaper timing on the next lithography leap. The next few quarters will show which one turns into the hard limit. (asml.com, news.skhynix.com, msn.com)
