Opta shifts CL favorites

Opta’s latest Champions League model has Arsenal as the favorite after the quarter-final first legs, replacing the pre-tie pecking order. (beinsports.com) The shift came after four first-leg results on April 7 and April 8: Arsenal won 1-0 at Sporting CP, Bayern Munich beat Real Madrid 2-1 in Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain beat Liverpool 2-0 in Paris, and Atlético de Madrid beat Barcelona 2-0 in Barcelona. (uefa.com) Barcelona had reached the quarter-finals with an 8-3 aggregate win over Newcastle United, including a 7-2 second-leg rout on March 18, but the first-leg loss to Atlético cut their position in the simulations. (uefa.com) Opta’s supercomputer is a forecasting model that reruns the tournament thousands of times after each result, updating every club’s path to the semi-finals, final and title. Opta Analyst said its season forecasts are based on 10,000 simulations. (theanalyst.com) That means one scoreline can reshape the bracket even before anyone is eliminated. A one-goal away win for Arsenal and a two-goal home win for Paris Saint-Germain improved their routes before the second legs on April 14 and April 15. (uefa.com; beinsports.com) The recalculation also reflects how compressed this year’s knockout field is. The last eight included Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Atlético de Madrid, Liverpool, Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid and Sporting CP. (uefa.com) Paris Saint-Germain entered the season as the defending European champion after beating Inter 5-0 in the 2025 final, while Real Madrid came into this campaign with a record 15 European Cup and Champions League titles. (theanalyst.com; uefa.com) UEFA has scheduled the second legs for April 14 and April 15, with the semi-finals starting on April 28 and April 29 and the final set for May 30 at the Puskás Aréna in Budapest. The model will move again as soon as those ties finish. (uefa.com)