Gunvor warns oil volatility
- Commodity trader Gunvor warned Q2 oil prices could be volatile due to Middle East tensions and weaker demand. - Their advisory flagged news‑driven price swings as the main near‑term risk to the market. - Traders say this heightens the chance of headline‑driven moves rather than fundamental supply shocks in the quarter (x.com).
Gunvor says oil prices could stay jumpy through the second quarter as Middle East tensions collide with a seasonal lull in demand. (oilprice.com) Gary Pedersen, Gunvor’s chief executive, said the risk runs from April through June, when crude demand usually softens between winter heating and the summer driving season. Gunvor is one of the world’s biggest independent oil traders, handling physical cargoes rather than just paper barrels. (gurufocus.com) Pedersen said prices may be pushed more by headlines than by the usual balance of supply and demand, a warning that points traders toward sudden moves after military or shipping news. Brent crude was around $98.75 early on April 23, while the front-month June Brent contract was about $103.36 late on April 22. (gurufocus.com) (finance.yahoo.com) (cmegroup.com) The warning lands in a market already split between weaker consumption and fears of disrupted supply from the Middle East. The International Energy Agency said in its April 14 report that global oil demand is expected to fall by 1.5 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2026, the sharpest quarterly drop since Covid-19. (iea.org) (iea.blob.core.windows.net) The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also cut its second-quarter demand view this month, though by a smaller amount. Reuters reported on April 13 that OPEC lowered its forecast for world oil demand in the quarter by 500,000 barrels a day. (msn.com) (opec.org) That mix can produce violent trading even without a new physical shortage. If a tanker route, refinery, or pipeline looks at risk, futures can spike first and the real barrels can sort themselves out later. (oilprice.com) (spglobal.com) The market has been trading that geopolitical premium for weeks. Financial Times market data showed Brent at $100.66 on April 22, up 48.42% from a year earlier, while Google Finance data for the June Brent contract showed an intraday range of $101.34 to $106.10 the same day. (ft.com) (google.com) For consumers and central banks, the oil market still feeds directly into inflation. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said consumer prices rose 3.3% in the 12 months through March 2026, with energy one of the categories that can swing quickly when crude jumps. (bls.gov) Gunvor’s message is that the next few months may be driven less by a clean supply story than by each new flashpoint and forecast. In a market trading both fear and softer demand at once, that leaves oil exposed to sharp moves in either direction. (oilprice.com)
