Tariffs and Iran war squeeze trade

China’s exporters are getting hit twice: U.S. tariffs are cutting orders, and the Iran war has made Gulf shipping riskier and more expensive. (bbc.com) In India, a separate rule change shows who actually gets relief when those tariffs are reversed. After the U.S. Supreme Court ruled Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs illegal, U.S. Customs and Border Protection opened a refund process for more than $160 billion in duties, but only the importer that paid the tariff can file the claim. (thewire.in) The Wire, citing the Global Trade Research Initiative, said about $12 million of those refundable duties is tied to Indian goods, and about 53% of India’s exports to the U.S. were covered by the higher tariffs. Approved claims are expected in 60 to 90 days with interest, but exporters cannot claim directly unless they were also the importer on record in the U.S. (thewire.in) That leaves many suppliers in Asia in the same position: they may have cut prices or absorbed part of the tariff to keep U.S. buyers, but the legal right to a refund sits with the American importer. Ajay Srivastava of the Global Trade Research Initiative said exporters would have to negotiate separately with buyers to recover any of that money. (thewire.in) At the same time, the Middle East conflict has turned shipping lanes into a live market variable. CNBC reported on April 20 that traffic in the Gulf stalled again after vessels came under fire, and that even a deal could take months to restore lost supply. (cnbc.com) The Strait of Hormuz matters because it is the route traders watch for both oil and container risk. On April 17, U.S. crude settled at $83.85 a barrel and Brent at $90.38 after Iran said the strait was open, but ING said disruptions were still keeping physical markets tight. (cnbc.com) Markets initially treated diplomacy as a reason to buy. CNBC reported on April 8 that a two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire lifted global stocks and pushed oil below $100, but gold and Treasurys still drew demand as hedges. (cnbc.com) By April 22, that relief had narrowed. CNBC said U.S. stock futures rose after Trump extended the ceasefire, but most Asia markets opened lower, and Brent still traded near $99.81 while West Texas Intermediate traded near $90.86 because the Strait of Hormuz remained closed and supply stayed constrained. (cnbc.com) The White House is also trying to shape the tariff story politically as the refund process starts. Trump said on CNBC he would “remember” companies that do not seek refunds, one day after Customs opened the portal for claims. (cnbc.com) The result is a supply chain where trade policy and war risk are no longer separate shocks. A factory can win back a few tariff points on paper, then lose the gain to freight delays, higher energy costs, or a buyer that keeps the refund. (thewire.in) (cnbc.com)