Ex‑Samsung boss predicts DDR5 crash

Kye-hyun Kyung, the former head of Samsung Electronics’ Device Solutions group and now an adviser to the company, said on May 18 that the current DDR5 price spike could unwind within about a year if Chinese memory makers keep expanding output. His comments, reported by Wccftech from the 285th National Academy of Engineering of Korea forum, point to the second half of 2027 as the period when supply could start catching up and then overshoot. The warning lands after a sharp run-up in mainstream memory prices tied to the AI buildout. Wccftech said DDR5 prices in Germany were up 414% in May from July 2025, while Sourceability described a broader memory rally driven by suppliers steering capacity toward higher-margin AI demand and away from volume PC and server parts. (wccftech.com) ### Why are DDR5 prices so high in the first place? Sourceability said the memory squeeze built through late 2025 and early 2026 as AI demand accelerated and major suppliers avoided aggressive capacity expansion. The firm said DDR5 chip prices rose from $6.84 in September 2025 to $27.20 in December, and that price increases spread across DRAM and NAND as downstream buyers competed for limited supply. (wccftech.com) South China Morning Post reported in January that Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron Technology were repurposing lines toward high-bandwidth memory and advanced DRAM used in AI data centers. That shift reduced supply for chips used in personal computers, smartphones and other devices, according to the report. (sourceability.com) ### What exactly did Kyung say could break the spike? Wccftech reported that Kyung told the Seoul forum Chinese companies were investing aggressively in memory production and that successful expansion could push prices lower starting in the second half of next year. The report said he cited market-research data indicating production capacity in the second half of 2027 could reach 6 million wafers per month. (scmp.com) The same report said Kyung linked the price outlook to output, not just announcements. If those investments translate into real production, more supply would hit a market that has been distorted by AI-related shortages, he said. Wccftech identified ChangXin Memory Technologies, or CXMT, as the leading Chinese DRAM player and said other companies including Jiahe Jinwei were also gaining presence in DDR5. (wccftech.com) ### Why does China matter so much to this market? SCMP reported that China’s domestic memory makers saw an opening as high prices hit consumers and device brands. The paper said CXMT and Yangtze Memory Technologies Corp. were positioned to use the disruption to win share while global buyers searched for available supply. (wccftech.com) That matters because DDR5 is not a niche component. DRAM sits inside servers, AI infrastructure, gaming PCs and consumer devices, so a sustained increase in Chinese supply would affect both contract pricing and spot markets if large buyers are willing to qualify those parts. That last point remains unsettled; the social-media discussion cited by the card focused on whether U.S. and European supply chains would accept cheaper Chinese DRAM, but no public procurement shift was independently confirmed in the reporting reviewed for this article. (scmp.com) ### What should readers watch next? The second half of 2027 is the date Kyung put on the market’s next turn. Wccftech said that is when added Chinese capacity could start showing up in output and when the current shortage could give way to lower prices. Before then, quarterly memory pricing data and production updates from Chinese suppliers such as CXMT will be the clearest markers. (wccftech.com) Sourceability said the current rally has been cumulative across several quarters, which means any reversal would most likely show up first in contract and spot pricing trends rather than in a single announcement. (sourceability.com)