PhDStudent63 says oil routes shut since February

An X post by @PhDStudent63 said Iran-Israel-U.S. confrontation had “shut” oil routes since February 2026. Publicly available reporting and policy briefings support the broad claim that at least one major oil chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, was effectively closed after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, and that risks later spread to the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb. The post did not name a specific lane. The available evidence points to Hormuz as the clearest route matching that description, with later pressure on Red Sea traffic adding to supply-chain disruption. ### Which oil route is most clearly documented as shut after February? The House of Commons Library said in a June 8, 2026 briefing that Iran responded to the February 28 U.S.-Israeli strikes by closing the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries around 20% of global petroleum and 20% of LNG each year. The briefing said shipping through the strait remained “very low” even after a conditional ceasefire. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) World Trade Organization data cited by the same briefing showed a 95% reduction in ships carrying crude oil to and from Persian Gulf ports and a 99% reduction in LNG shipping since the conflict began. Those figures are stronger than a generic warning about disruption; they describe an abrupt collapse in traffic through a specific energy chokepoint. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) ### Why does February 2026 matter in the timeline? The House of Commons Library dated the start of the current phase of the conflict to February 28, 2026, when Israel and the United States began strikes on Iran. It said one Iranian countermeasure was closing Hormuz. That aligns directly with the X post’s reference to disruptions beginning in February. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) The same briefing said Iran later restricted passage to ships from “non hostile” states and reportedly imposed tolls on vessels transiting the strait. In practical terms, that meant the route was no longer operating as a normal open commercial corridor, even if some movement remained possible. ### Was the Red Sea part of the same problem? (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) The Council on Foreign Relations said on July 20, 2026, that the Iran-backed Houthis had declared a complete naval blockade on Saudi Arabia and that the move threatened the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the south end of the Red Sea. CFR said the Red Sea carries roughly 12% to 15% of global maritime trade worth more than $1 trillion a year. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) CFR said the Houthis had already banned Israeli and Israeli-linked ships from the Red Sea more than a month earlier and warned that sustained interference there would cause supply-chain delays, higher energy prices and more strain on global markets. That does not show a February shutdown of the Red Sea itself, but it does show how a Hormuz shock could broaden into a two-chokepoint shipping crisis. (cfr.org) ### Did the X thread overstate the case? The strongest verified part of the claim is about Hormuz, not an unspecified set of “oil routes.” The June parliamentary briefing explicitly described Hormuz as closed and documented a collapse in crude and LNG traffic after February 28. The broader idea that multiple routes were under pressure is also supported, but on a later timeline. (cfr.org) CFR’s July update tied the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb to the same regional war and said those waterways had become another economic pressure point. ### What is the clearest takeaway from the available record? (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) The clearest documented reading is that the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut as an oil and gas artery after February 28, 2026, and that Red Sea risks later compounded the disruption. The X post’s warning about supply chains and energy markets matches the language used by both the House of Commons Library and CFR, though the post itself did not identify the route by name. (cfr.org) The House of Commons Library said the UAE’s state oil company estimated full flows through Hormuz would not resume until 2027 even if a deal were reached quickly. CFR’s July 20 update said Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea security remained a live risk as the conflict widened. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk)