India inflation ticked up

India’s retail inflation rose to 3.40% in March, a small pickup from February but still below the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% target. (usnews.com) The March reading, released on April 13 by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, was up from 3.21% in February and slightly below the 3.48% forecast in a Reuters poll. (usnews.com, static.pib.gov.in) Price pressures were stronger outside cities. Rural inflation was 3.63% in March, while urban inflation was 3.11%; food inflation rose to 3.87% from 3.47% in February. (static.pib.gov.in) India’s central bank sets monetary policy against a formal 4% inflation goal, with a tolerance band of 2 percentage points on either side. With headline inflation still below that midpoint, the latest data does not show a break from the recent run of relatively mild consumer-price growth. (rbi.org.in, static.pib.gov.in) That backdrop shaped last week’s rate decision. On April 8, the Reserve Bank of India kept the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25% and retained a neutral stance in its first bi-monthly policy of the 2026-27 financial year. (indianexpress.com) The inflation release was also the first full consumer-price reading since the recent West Asia shock began to ripple through oil, currency and trade markets. Reuters reported that policymakers were watching whether those disruptions would feed into domestic prices. (usnews.com, indianexpress.com) The March data showed some categories staying subdued even as food firmed up. Housing inflation was 2.11%, health was 1.75%, education services were 3.30%, and transport registered 0.00% year over year in the combined index. (static.pib.gov.in) For now, the numbers leave India with inflation that is moving higher at the margin, but still running well below the central bank’s target midpoint and inside its tolerance band. (rbi.org.in, static.pib.gov.in)