U.S. child obesity rates plateau

Nature published a global analysis on May 13 showing obesity rates in school-aged children and adolescents have leveled off in many high-income countries, including the United States, while adult rates continued rising for longer before slowing. The paper, led by researchers at Imperial College London through the NCD Risk Factor Collaboration, examined data from 4,050 population-based studies across 200 countries and territories from 1980 to 2024. STAT first reported the U.S. angle on May 13, citing the new Nature analysis and related commentary from Imperial researchers. In the United States, the latest federal estimates still show obesity remains widespread in both age groups, with children below adults by a wide margin. ### Did U.S. child obesity actually fall, or just stop rising? Imperial College London said on May 13 that the increase in obesity “slowed or levelled off” in most high-income countries, with the slowdown appearing first in school-aged children and later in adults. The university’s summary of the Nature paper said that in some high-income countries, including France, Italy and Portugal, rates may have started to decline, but it did not say that for the United States specifically. (nature.com) CDC data released in February 2026 show 21.1% of U.S. children and adolescents ages 2 to 19 had obesity in August 2021 through August 2023, including 7.0% with severe obesity. Those figures are the latest nationally representative measured estimates from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, or NHANES. ### What does the new Nature paper say about adults? (imperial.ac.uk) The Nature paper says obesity growth in high-income countries often slowed first among children and then about a decade later among adults, according to Imperial College London’s summary of the findings. That means the child and adult curves did not move in parallel even within the same countries. (cdc.gov) CDC’s February 2026 adult update estimated that 40.3% of U.S. adults age 20 and older had obesity in August 2021 through August 2023, including 9.7% with severe obesity. That compares with 21.1% among U.S. children and adolescents in the same period, underscoring that adults remain the more heavily affected group in the latest U.S. data. ### Why are researchers talking about a split between richer and poorer countries? (imperial.ac.uk) Nature’s paper described global obesity as uneven rather than a single uniform epidemic, with rates still rising rapidly in many low- and middle-income countries even as growth slowed in wealthier ones. Imperial said the increases remain pronounced across parts of Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Pacific and Caribbean island nations. (cdc.gov) Majid Ezzati of Imperial College London said in the university release that the latest analysis suggests “the rate of growth in obesity is slowing and stabilising, and may even be reversing, in many countries.” He added that looking at the pace of change, not only prevalence, can help show where policy action is most urgent. (nature.com) ### How much weight should readers put on BMI-based obesity estimates? CDC said its U.S. estimates are based on measured height and weight collected in NHANES examinations, with obesity defined by body mass index thresholds for adults and by age- and sex-specific growth-chart percentiles for children. The agency also notes that BMI is widely used but does not capture all variation in body fat across sex, age, and racial or ethnic groups. (imperial.ac.uk) STAT’s report framed the new paper as a look at the “velocity of obesity” rather than just the headline prevalence totals. That framing matches Imperial’s description of the work as an effort to track whether obesity is still accelerating, flattening or, in some countries, beginning to reverse. ### What comes next from here? (cdc.gov) The European Congress on Obesity is meeting in Istanbul this month, where researchers are discussing the new findings alongside broader obesity data and treatment debates, Imperial said. In the United States, the most recent benchmark remains CDC’s February 2026 NHANES-based update covering August 2021 through August 2023 for both children and adults. (imperial.ac.uk) (statnews.com)