Recession odds spike
Moody’s AI model now puts the probability of a U.S. recession at 49%, while Goldman Sachs estimates a 30% chance — a clear jump in near‑term downturn risk. Volatility, tighter financial conditions and global demand shocks are driving strategists toward defensive positioning and fresh stress tests for portfolios. (techi.com) (thetechedvocate.org)
Moody’s Analytics’ machine‑learning recession model returned its highest 12‑month probability in years, and chief economist Mark Zandi warned a downturn would be “hard to avoid” if energy prices remain elevated. (cnbc.com)) Goldman Sachs increased its near‑term recession odds in late March, raising its estimate by five percentage points from earlier in the month. (forbes.com)) Alongside that shift, Goldman lifted its headline PCE inflation forecast toward roughly 3.1% by December 2026 and trimmed its full‑year GDP growth view to about 2.1%. (dnyuz.com)) Analysts point to a recent oil shock centered on Strait of Hormuz tensions — crude briefly topped the low‑$100s per barrel in mid‑March — as the immediate catalyst driving recession risk higher. (techi.com)) The U.S. labor signal hardened in February with a headline loss of about 92,000 payrolls and the S&P 500 falling roughly 1.67% on that report, prompting some asset managers to run fresh headline‑shock stress tests. (techi.com)) Goldman now expects the unemployment rate to drift toward the mid‑4% range by year‑end (about 4.6% in its model), and market participants will be watching the early April GDP and incoming payroll releases for confirmation of slowing momentum. (bloomberg.com))
