China: rebound talk, property pain
Investors are divided on China — some see policy support and a possible stock rebound, while others warn domestic demand remains weak and growth is lop-sided toward industry. ( ) The property sector’s troubles surfaced again as Evergrande founder Hui Ka‑yan pleaded guilty in a fraud trial after three years in detention, a development described as legally significant even if analysts said it may not move markets much. ( )
China’s economy is sending two signals at once: some investors see a stock rebound, while Evergrande’s founder just pleaded guilty in a fraud case. (bloomberg.com; scmp.com) Stephen Jen of Eurizon SLJ Capital said Chinese shares could rise 10 percent by the end of 2026, arguing that Beijing’s support measures are lifting growth and that valuations still look cheap. Bloomberg reported the call on April 14, with Jen saying investors remain underweight China after years of weak returns. (bloomberg.com) A Reuters survey published April 13 found economists expect China’s first-quarter growth to have improved on strong exports, but to slow later in 2026 as overseas demand and profits come under pressure. An AFP survey published April 14 said domestic demand remains weak even if headline growth picks up. (usnews.com; sg.finance.yahoo.com) That split runs through China’s economy: factories and exports have held up better than households and homebuyers. Fitch Ratings said in January that domestic demand would stay constrained in 2026 by weak consumer confidence, deflationary pressure and investment headwinds tied to property and local-government debt. (fitchratings.com) The property side resurfaced Tuesday in Shenzhen, where Hui Ka-yan, also known as Xu Jiayin, pleaded guilty to charges that included embezzlement of corporate assets and corporate bribery, according to the Shenzhen Intermediate People’s Court statement cited by South China Morning Post. The court said it would announce a verdict later. (scmp.com) ABC and other outlets reported Hui had spent about three years in detention before the plea, and that the charges also included fundraising fraud and illegally taking public deposits. Outside mainland China, Evergrande liquidators are still trying to freeze offshore assets linked to Hui and his former spouse. (abc.net.au; bloomberg.com) Analysts told South China Morning Post the plea is a legal milestone in Evergrande’s collapse but is unlikely to move markets much on its own. The company’s downfall has been unfolding for years, and investors have already priced in much of the damage from the property bust. (scmp.com) KPMG said in its first-quarter 2026 China Economic Monitor that the divergence between supply and demand has widened, with property weakness still dragging on activity. That leaves investors weighing two different China trades on the same day: a policy-backed equity bounce and a property slump that has not finished unwinding. (assets.kpmg.com; bloomberg.com)
