WNBA: Liberty look like front‑runners

The early WNBA story is simple: New York already looks like the most complete team in the league. Not because the Liberty are perfect — they aren’t. They’re already dealing with absences and a new head coach. But when the first weekend gave them a blowout and then a gritty overtime road win, while Las Vegas got smashed at home, the shape of the title race got clearer fast. ### Why are people jumping to New York so fast? Because the Liberty didn’t just win — they won in two different ways. They opened by crushing Connecticut 106-75, then followed with a 98-93 overtime win over Washington on May 10. One game was pure control. The other was messy, close, and required late-shot creation. Teams that can do both this early usually deserve the front-runner label. (liberty.wnba.com) ### What made the opener so loud? The margin. New York beat the Sun by 31, which was the franchise’s largest margin of victory in a season opener. Breanna Stewart put up 31 points and 10 rebounds, and the Liberty got 11 assists from Julie Vanloo. For a first game under Chris DeMarco, that’s about as clean a statement as you can make. (liberty.wnba.com) ### Why does the Washington game matter more? Because that’s the one contenders are supposed to survive, not just dominate. New York needed overtime, got 25 points from Marine Johannès, 23 and nine from Stewart, and 18 points plus seven assists from rookie Pauline Astier. Sabrina Ionescu, Satou Sabally, and Rebecca Allen did not play, so this wasn’t some full-strength cruise. (liberty.wnba.com) It was a depth test — and the Liberty passed it. ### Is this really about depth? Basically, yes. Top-end talent gets you on the short list. Depth keeps you there. Stewart is still the center of everything, but the catch with superteams is always the same — what happens when two or three regulars are out? New York’s first answer was: enough shooting, enough secondary creation, enough size, still works. That’s why the weekend felt bigger than one nice box score. (wnba.com) ### What happened to Las Vegas? The Aces got punched in the mouth. Phoenix beat them 99-66 on May 9, right after Las Vegas received its 2025 championship rings. A’ja Wilson scored 19, but the Aces shot poorly and turned it over too much. That doesn’t erase their ceiling, but it did undercut the old default assumption that Vegas should start every season as the unquestioned team to beat. (wnba.com) ### Why is Atlanta in this conversation? Because the Dream pulled off the kind of win that changes how people talk about you. Atlanta came back to beat Minnesota 91-90, with Te-Hina Paopao hitting the go-ahead jumper with 11.3 seconds left and Allisha Gray blocking Olivia Miles at the end. If New York is the “still elite” story, Atlanta is the “maybe this team is actually real” story. (aces.wnba.com) ### Were the Liberty already favored? Yes — and that matters. Before opening weekend, betting markets already had New York and Las Vegas at the top of the board, with the Liberty listed as favorites at +220 in ESPN’s odds roundup. So this isn’t one hot take built from two games. It’s preseason expectation meeting immediate evidence. (wnba.com) ### So what’s the actual read right now? The cleanest read is that New York looks like the safest bet. Stewart still gives them the highest floor, but the more important thing is that the Liberty already look less fragile than the other contenders. One weekend doesn’t decide a season. But one weekend can tell you whose case got stronger — and right now, that team is New York. (espn.com) (liberty.wnba.com)