Poll: Majority of Taiwanese now doubt U.S. military commitment
- A Taiwan Democracy Foundation poll released this week found 57% of Taiwanese do not believe the United States would send troops if war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait. - The same survey found 55.6% doubt U.S. forces could deliver timely, effective help, while 49% lack confidence in U.S.-made weapons and 66% warn against relying entirely on Washington. - The shift follows earlier surveys showing falling trust in U.S. credibility under Donald Trump and rising concern over a U.S.-China deal that could hurt Taiwan. (focustaiwan.tw) (taipeitimes.com)
A new poll in Taiwan found most respondents doubt the United States would send troops if China attacked the island. (thestar.com.my) The survey, released Monday by the Taiwan Democracy Foundation, found 57% do not believe Washington would intervene militarily in a Taiwan Strait war. Fewer than one-quarter said they think the U.S. would help with troops. (thestar.com.my) Asked about actual battlefield support, 55.6% said U.S. forces could not provide timely and effective military assistance in a crisis, while 31.5% said they could. Confidence in U.S.-made weapons was also weak: 49% said they did not trust their defensive effectiveness. (thestar.com.my) The poll also found 57.6% agree Taiwan cannot protect itself simply by buying weapons from the United States. Another 66% said it would be dangerous to depend entirely on Washington if U.S. production shortages delayed deliveries. (thestar.com.my) The numbers land as Taiwan is still debating how much deterrence should rest on U.S. backing and how much must come from its own spending, reserves and civil defense. A separate Academia Sinica survey released on March 12 found 53.5% support raising defense spending to 3% of gross domestic product, and 69.5% support buying U.S. weapons. (focustaiwan.tw) (taiwannews.com.tw) That same Academia Sinica survey also found 58.7% said they would resist a Chinese invasion even without U.S. military intervention. Research fellow Wu Wen-chin said only about 34% now view the United States as a credible country, down from 45% in 2021. (focustaiwan.tw) The erosion did not start this week. An Academia Sinica poll published in May 2025 found more than 40% of Taiwanese expected U.S. commitment to Taiwan’s security to decline in Donald Trump’s second term, and 59% worried Washington and Beijing might strike a deal that harms Taiwan. (taipeitimes.com) A Brookings Institution survey published in April 2025 found 37.5% of Taiwanese believed the U.S. would likely or very likely intervene militarily if China attacked, down from 44.5% in July 2024. It also found only 23.1% viewed the U.S. as a trustworthy or very trustworthy ally. (taiwannews.com.tw) The Star said Taiwan Democracy Foundation researcher Chang Chun-kai tied the latest mood to the Ukraine war, the 2025 India-Pakistan conflict and recent U.S.-Israeli operations against Iran. He said those conflicts changed how Taiwanese assess U.S. military capacity, the People’s Liberation Army and Taiwan’s own risks. (thestar.com.my) The same poll pointed to a more pragmatic streak in public opinion on China policy. Asked whether pursuing peace through political negotiations would amount to surrender, only 17.6% agreed. (thestar.com.my) The result is a public that looks less certain about American rescue but still broadly willing to fund defense and, in many cases, resist on its own. That leaves Taipei trying to strengthen deterrence while persuading voters that outside support would still arrive in time. (focustaiwan.tw) (thestar.com.my)
