Fed hike odds rise to ~58–60%

CME FedWatch showed on Tuesday, September 8, that traders were assigning roughly 58% to 60% odds to a Federal Reserve rate increase at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, according to CME’s rate-probability tool. The pricing pointed to a possible target range of 3.75% to 4.00% if policymakers lift rates next week. CME says FedWatch translates 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices into probabilities for upcoming policy outcomes. The Federal Reserve’s calendar lists the next FOMC meeting for September 15-16. ### Where did the 58% to 60% figure come from? CME Group says its FedWatch tool tracks “the likelihood of various target rate outcomes” for each scheduled FOMC meeting using fed funds futures pricing. The figure circulating in market posts matches that framework: it is not a Fed forecast or an official signal from policymakers, but a market-implied probability derived from futures contracts. (cmegroup.com) 30-Day Fed Funds futures are “a direct reflection of collective marketplace insight regarding the future course” of Fed policy, CME says on its product page. That is why traders, economists and news desks use FedWatch as a shorthand for how markets are repricing the next meeting. ### Why does the implied range matter? (cmegroup.com) The 3.75% to 4.00% range matters because FedWatch organizes probabilities around specific target-rate bands for each meeting date. If the highest-probability outcome shifts into a higher band, that signals investors are paying up for contracts consistent with tighter policy. CME’s user guide says the tool displays the likelihood of those possible target outcomes after a meeting date is selected. (cmegroup.com) The Federal Open Market Committee is the body that sets open market operations and determines the federal funds target range, according to the Federal Reserve Board. The market is therefore trying to estimate not just whether the Fed moves, but exactly where the target band lands after the meeting. ### How does this connect to the rate the market trades every day? (cmegroup.com) The New York Fed publishes the effective federal funds rate, or EFFR, as a volume-weighted median of overnight federal funds transactions. That benchmark is the traded rate in the market, while the FOMC sets a target range around which policy is implemented. The New York Fed’s latest reference-rate feed shows recent money-market benchmarks around the mid-3% area, providing the operating backdrop against which traders are pricing the next policy step. (federalreserve.gov) Futures markets then translate those expectations into probabilities for the next FOMC decision. ### Why were investors linking higher hike odds to pressure on Bitcoin and stocks? (newyorkfed.org) CME said in a September 1 market video that expectations for the September 16 FOMC meeting had already surged after remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, with FedWatch showing odds rising as high as 66% at one point. Higher expected policy rates typically raise financing costs and Treasury yields, which investors often treat as a headwind for risk assets. (markets.newyorkfed.org) CME attributed the shift specifically to changing rate expectations around the September meeting. Market posts tied that repricing to weakness in Bitcoin and equities, but the underlying public data point is the futures-implied probability itself. FedWatch is designed to show how traders are adjusting those expectations in real time rather than to explain every move in stocks or crypto. ### When will traders get the official answer? (cmegroup.com) The Federal Reserve Board’s September 2026 calendar lists the FOMC meeting for September 15-16. The Fed’s meeting-calendar page says policy statements are linked from those scheduled meetings, and minutes from regular meetings are released three weeks after the policy decision. September 16 is the date traders will be watching for the policy statement and the target-range decision. (cmegroup.com) Until then, CME FedWatch remains the main public gauge of how fed funds futures are pricing the odds of a move. (federalreserve.gov)