Airfare up 27% year-over-year

The Points Guy reported on Aug. 5 that travelers looking at late-2026 holiday trips are facing a much more expensive market than a year ago. The outlet said June average ticket prices were up 27% from 2025 and that early holiday fare snapshots also point higher. Its analysis, based in part on data from Points Path, said the usual advice to wait for a deal may be less useful this year. Instead, the site urged travelers to start searching now for Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s trips. ### Where is the 27% figure coming from? The Points Guy said the 27% increase refers to June average ticket prices compared with the same month last year. In the Aug. 5 story, Sean Cudahy wrote that airfare had “skyrocketed over the past five months” and cited higher oil and jet fuel costs after conflict involving Iran as a major driver. (thepointsguy.com) A separate June 17 Points Guy report said the spring airfare surge had cooled somewhat for August travel, but fares were still above last summer’s levels. That piece said any drop in oil prices could take weeks or months to filter through to ticket prices, limiting near-term relief for consumers. ### How much higher are holiday fares right now? (thepointsguy.com) The Points Guy said domestic round-trip Thanksgiving fares were running nearly 13% above 2025 levels as of this week. For Christmas and New Year’s travel, defined there as trips between Dec. 18 and Jan. 3, domestic fares were up about 18% from a year earlier. International holiday fares were up about 19%, the report said. (thepointsguy.com) Those figures matter because they describe fares months before the peak holiday rush. In prior years, late bookers sometimes counted on price swings or short-lived sales. This year’s early readings suggest travelers are entering the shopping season from a higher starting point. That is an inference from the pricing comparisons published by The Points Guy. (thepointsguy.com) ### Why is booking timing getting more attention? The Points Guy’s broader 2026 airfare guide said timing matters most during peak periods such as summer, the holidays and spring break. That guide said travelers should generally book domestic trips one to two months ahead and international trips three to five months ahead, while also monitoring earlier for deals. (thepointsguy.com) The holiday article went further because of current prices. It said this may be the year to book “extra, extra early,” reflecting a market in which fares are already elevated before the usual fall booking rush begins. ### Are airlines signaling any reason fares might fall soon? United Airlines Chief Financial Officer Michael Leskinen said on an earnings call last month that the carrier had not seen a measurable demand impact from higher fares, according to The Points Guy. (thepointsguy.com) The same article said executives at major airlines had described customers as willing to keep paying current prices, giving carriers less incentive to cut fares quickly. (thepointsguy.com) That does not guarantee fares will keep rising. But it does mean travelers should not assume cheaper tickets will appear simply because fuel costs ease. The Points Guy’s June coverage said any relief tied to lower oil prices may take time to show up in airfare. ### What can travelers actually do now? Google Flights says its search tools show whether a fare is lower or higher than usual and let users track price changes for specific routes. (thepointsguy.com) The service also offers date-grid and price-graph tools to compare cheaper travel days. The Points Guy’s advice is more practical than exotic: start searching early, set alerts and buy when a workable fare appears. (thepointsguy.com) For late-2026 holiday trips, the next concrete step is likely to happen on booking platforms rather than in a press release — travelers will be watching Thanksgiving and year-end fares over the next several weeks on airline sites and Google Flights. (thepointsguy.com) (google.com)