Fed holds rates steady
The Federal Reserve left the benchmark rate unchanged (3.5–3.75%) on March 18, signaling continued macro uncertainty and a single expected cut in 2026 — keeping mortgage and development financing costs elevated. The policy pause keeps leasing preferred over new purchases for many occupiers and sustains capital selectivity in CRE. (foxbusiness.com) (cnbc.com)
FOMC projections released with the March 17–18 meeting show participants still penciling in one policy rate cut in 2026 while singling out heightened uncertainty from developments in the Middle East. (federalreserve.gov) Long-term market rates stayed elevated: the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.27% on March 18, 2026. (tradingeconomics.com) The average 30‑year fixed mortgage was trading in the low‑6% range (roughly 6.3%–6.33%) across lender surveys on March 18–19, 2026. (mortgageresearch.com) Lenders remain selective but active: industry panels and lender surveys in early 2026 reported that capital is available for well‑underwritten CRE deals even as banks price and structure for more risk. (northmarq.com) Private‑label CMBS issuance showed renewed momentum early in 2026, with 17 deals totaling $15.2 billion in February and a YTD total of $23.2 billion by the end of February. (secure.businesswire.com) Industrial collateral is outperforming across securitized pools: Trepp reported an industrial loan delinquency rate near 0.67% as of February 2026, helping underwrite confidence for industrial financings compared with office or retail. (trepp.com) Inland Empire fundamentals entering 2026 show vacancy around 7.2% with total availability roughly 12.7% and average asking rents stabilizing at about $1.00 per SF per month NNN, while direct net absorption in Q4 2025 totaled 1.7 million SF and new deliveries were ~883,000 SF. (kidder.com) Sublease stock—estimated at roughly 20% of available space—continues to pressure headline rents and drive concessions, keeping occupiers leaning toward leasing flexibility rather than owner‑occupier or speculative purchases while developers curb new starts. (kidder.com) With bank underwriting more cautious, sponsors and capital markets are increasingly tapping CMBS and non‑bank lenders for acquisition and refinance capital, a trend supported by strong early‑2026 CMBS issuance and lender commentary at industry conferences. (secure.businesswire.com)
