GasBuddy forecasts $4.48 Memorial Day average

GasBuddy said on May 20 that U.S. gasoline would average $4.48 a gallon on Memorial Day, a jump from $3.14 a year earlier, as tensions tied to the Strait of Hormuz pushed fuel costs higher. CNBC reported on May 23 that the fuel-tracking company also sees a possible $4.80 national average from Memorial Day through Labor Day if disruptions in the waterway persist. AAA said on May 11 that 45 million Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles from home between May 21 and May 25, with 39.1 million of them driving. That sets up a holiday weekend in which demand for road travel remains high even as pump prices rise. ### Where does the $4.48 Memorial Day number come from? GasBuddy’s May 20 summer outlook put the national average at $4.48 per gallon for Memorial Day. (gasbuddy.com) The company said that would make this one of the most expensive starts to a summer driving season in years. (mwg.aaa.com) CNBC, citing GasBuddy, reported on May 23 that the forecast reflects pressure from oil-market disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz. Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, was cited in the company’s release outlining the summer outlook. ### Why is the Strait of Hormuz part of a U.S. gasoline forecast? The Strait of Hormuz is a major global oil shipping route, and GasBuddy said a prolonged closure or disruption there could keep crude and refined-product costs elevated into late summer. (gasbuddy.com) In its May 20 release, the company said all-time record highs were possible if the strait remained closed for a significant portion of the season. (cnbc.com) CNBC reported that the same risk underpins GasBuddy’s higher summer scenario of $4.80 a gallon on average through Labor Day. That figure is a seasonal average, not a one-day peak. ### How unusual are current pump prices? The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly retail gasoline data showed the national regular-gasoline average at $4.33 per gallon for the week of May 18. (gasbuddy.com) That places GasBuddy’s Memorial Day forecast above the latest weekly federal reading heading into the holiday. AAA’s Memorial Day forecast said drivers this year would face the highest holiday-period pump prices since 2022. (cnbc.com) Third-party market trackers also showed the national average above $4.50 on May 23, underscoring how close retail prices already were to GasBuddy’s holiday estimate. ### What does this mean for holiday travelers? AAA’s forecast said road trips will still dominate Memorial Day travel, with 39.1 million people expected to drive. (eia.gov) That means even modest additional increases at the pump can affect a large number of travelers over the five-day holiday window. CNBC reported that higher gasoline prices are arriving alongside rising airfares and other travel costs, testing how much households are willing to spend at the start of the summer season. (mwg.aaa.com) Airlines and travel companies are using the weekend as an early gauge of consumer demand. ### What should readers watch next? Memorial Day falls on May 25 this year, and daily station data will show whether the national average lands near GasBuddy’s $4.48 forecast. (mwg.aaa.com) Labor Day, which marks the end of GasBuddy’s summer forecast window, falls on Sept. 7. (cnbc.com) The next checkpoints are weekly retail gasoline updates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and any revised market outlooks from GasBuddy and AAA as summer driving demand builds. (eia.gov) (gasbuddy.com)