5,000 March Madness sims
A Davidson professor ran 5,000 simulated NCAA tournaments and calculates the odds of predicting every winner at about 1 in 9.2 quintillion — a stark reminder analytics help, but single‑bracket perfection is basically impossible WESH.
Tim Chartier holds the Joseph R. Morton Professorship in Mathematics and Computer Science at Davidson College, where his work centers on sports analytics and ranking systems. (davidson.edu) His top men’s Final Four projection lists Duke, Florida, Arizona and Michigan as the semifinalists. (wisn.com) On the women’s side, his models consistently favor the No. 1 seeds UConn, South Carolina, UCLA and Texas to reach the semifinals. (wisn.com) Chartier noted that while many models line up with the top seeds, some of his model variants flag Illinois as a possible upset candidate — a sign his simulations produce conflicting signals. (wisn.com) Davidson’s curriculum under Chartier includes student projects that build the mathematical formulas and ranking methods used to generate bracket predictions. (davidson.edu) The 2025 tournament saw all four No. 1 men’s seeds make the Final Four, only the second time that’s happened since the NCAA field expanded to 64 teams (the first was 2008). (usatoday.com)
