Hormuz may stay disrupted
The IMF warned the Strait of Hormuz might never return to previous normal traffic levels, framing recent disruptions as potentially long‑term rather than temporary. Live accounts report failed US‑Iran talks, an Iranian negotiator saying “we will not bow to any threats,” and CENTCOM clearing underwater mines in the strait as regional tensions persist. (The Jerusalem Post)
The International Monetary Fund said traffic through the Strait of Hormuz may not return to its old pattern even if fighting eases. (msn.com) United States and Iranian negotiators ended talks in Islamabad on April 12 without a deal, leaving a two-week ceasefire under strain. Vice President JD Vance said the sides “have not reached an agreement,” and France 24 reported both sides blamed each other for the breakdown. (cbsnews.com) (france24.com) Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led Tehran’s delegation in Pakistan, said on April 12 that Iran “will not bow to any threats” after President Donald Trump ordered a naval blockade of the strait. Reuters, via Al Arabiya, reported that Tehran rejected what it called excessive United States demands. (alarabiya.net 1) (alarabiya.net 2) The strait is a narrow shipping lane between Iran and Oman that carries about 20 million barrels a day of oil, roughly one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade. The United States Energy Information Administration said it also handled about one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade in 2024, mostly from Qatar. (eia.gov) That is why a partial reopening does not mean normal trade. The International Energy Agency says only about 3.5 million to 5.5 million barrels a day of pipeline capacity can bypass Hormuz, far below the volume that usually moves through the waterway. (iea.org) On April 11, United States Central Command said two Navy guided-missile destroyers, the USS Frank E. Peterson and USS Michael Murphy, entered the strait to begin “setting conditions” for mine-clearing. Central Command said underwater drones would join the operation in the following days to establish a safe passage for commercial shipping. (centcom.mil) Shipowners and insurers still have not rushed back. The New York Times reported on April 8 that only a handful of vessels had crossed after the truce began, and Lloyd’s List reported on April 10 that flows had fallen further as Iran imposed new transit rules and threats of force. (nytimes.com) (lloydslist.com) United Nations Trade and Development said last week that Hormuz remained “virtually closed” and warned the disruption was already feeding into trade, prices and financial stress. The agency cut its outlook for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 1.5% to 2.5% from about 4.7% in 2025. (unctad.org) The immediate question is not whether oil can move through Hormuz once, but whether tankers, crews and insurers will treat the route as routine again. The International Monetary Fund’s warning points to a market that may price in permanent risk even after the mines are cleared. (msn.com) (lloydslist.com)
