Drone campaign tests Europe
- Analysts say mass drone salvos aim to exhaust Ukrainian air defences and pressure cities and infrastructure. - Even with high interception rates, defenders incur heavy costs in interceptors, systems, and logistical strain. - That attritional tactic could test Western stockpiles and the durability of long‑term support for Ukraine amid continued attacks. (independent.co.uk)
Russia’s latest drone campaign is turning air defense into a war of endurance, with salvos now large enough to strain Ukraine and the countries rearming it. (understandingwar.org) On April 15-16, Russia launched more than 700 strike vehicles in two waves, including 659 Shahed-type and other long-range drones, 20 Kh-101 cruise missiles and 19 Iskander-M or S-400 ballistic missiles, according to Ukraine’s military and the Institute for the Study of War. Ukrainian forces said they downed 636 long-range drones, 19 Kh-101s, eight ballistic missiles and four Iskander-K cruise missiles, but 12 missiles and 20 drones still hit 26 locations. (understandingwar.org) The same strike series killed at least 17 people and injured at least 100, with heavy damage reported in Kyiv, Dnipro, Odesa and Kharkiv. The Institute for the Study of War said Russia has now launched seven strike series of 700 or more drones and missiles, and three of those came within the past month. (understandingwar.org) A drone swarm works like a stress test: cheap aircraft force defenders to fire, track and move for hours before faster missiles arrive. Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat said the first wave in the April 15-16 attack acted as “combat reconnaissance” before later cruise- and ballistic-missile strikes. (understandingwar.org) That pattern has been building for months. A Center for Strategic and International Studies study published in July 2025 said the average size of Russia’s mixed drone-and-missile waves rose from about 100 munitions in 2022 to nearly 300 in 2025, while the gap between major strikes shrank from roughly a month to as little as two days. (csis.org) Ukraine is still shooting down most incoming drones. Ukraine’s Defence Ministry said air defenses intercepted more than 90% of drones in March 2026, even as Russia launched more than 6,400 one-way attack drones that month, and the British government put the March total at about 6,500. (mod.gov.ua, gov.uk) But high interception rates do not mean low cost. Politico reported on April 14 that Kyiv fears rising global demand for interceptors, driven by the Iran war and European rearmament, will leave Ukraine short, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in Berlin that “there is not enough production capacity in Europe.” (politico.eu) Berlin and London are trying to answer that with production deals and volume. Germany signed a €4 billion defense cooperation package that includes several hundred Patriot PAC-2 missiles to be built in Germany, while the United Kingdom said on April 15 that it would deliver at least 120,000 drones to Ukraine this year and thousands of air-defense missiles. (politico.eu, gov.uk) Moscow is also widening the political pressure. On April 15, Russia’s defense ministry said European plans to expand drone production and supply for Ukraine were pulling those countries deeper into the war, and former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said a published list of European facilities could become targets. (usnews.com) The immediate question is no longer whether Ukraine can knock down most drones on a given night. It is whether Ukraine and its backers can keep replacing missiles, launchers and crews fast enough for the next wave after that. (understandingwar.org, politico.eu)
