Prolonged fire danger for Tampa area

The Tampa Bay area is heading into another stretch of elevated wildfire risk as dry air, warm temperatures and drought hold across west-central Florida. (weather.gov) The National Weather Service office in Ruskin said on April 15 that “critical” afternoon humidity values were expected for several days, with rain-free weather lasting through the week and into the weekend. Its local forecast page said moderate to extreme drought was continuing across west-central and southwest Florida as of April 17. (weather.gov, weather.gov) In peninsular Florida, the threshold for a Red Flag Warning includes relative humidity below 35% and sustained winds above 15 mph, along with very dry vegetation. WGCU reported those criteria apply to offices covering Tampa Bay, Melbourne, Miami and Key West. (wgcu.org) Low humidity means the air pulls moisture out of grass, brush and pine litter, making small sparks easier to turn into fast-moving fires. Drought adds to that risk because the ground and vegetation have already gone weeks or months without enough rain. (weather.gov, wgcu.org) That danger is not limited to the Panhandle. The Tampa forecast office said dry high pressure was keeping the region mostly rain-free, while WGCU said peninsular Florida offices were also watching for low humidity and winds strong enough to support dangerous fire spread. (weather.gov, wgcu.org) Local restrictions are already in place in parts of the Tampa Bay region. The Florida Forest Service burn-ban dashboard listed Hillsborough and Pasco counties under county-enacted burn bans as of April 1, while Pinellas County prohibits open burning of yard debris year-round by ordinance. (fdacs.gov) The National Weather Service had not posted a Red Flag Warning for the Tampa Bay office area in the April 15 forecast discussion because winds were expected to stay below 15 mph at that point. Forecasters said the missing ingredient was wind, not dry air. (weather.gov) Florida’s fire season typically peaks in the spring dry season, when hot afternoons, low humidity and sea-breeze winds line up before summer rains arrive. In this pattern, officials usually tell residents to avoid debris burning, machinery that throws sparks and any outdoor flame that could escape. (wgcu.org, weather.gov) For Tampa Bay, the forecast problem is simple: no meaningful rain, dry fuels and enough afternoon wind to keep fire crews on edge until the pattern changes. (weather.gov, weather.gov)