Real prices down >30%
Canada’s inflation‑adjusted home prices are now more than 30% below the 2022 peak — effectively erasing gains from the past decade and pushing the market toward a possible 'lost decade' in real terms. That decline raises the risk that housing will stop functioning as a generational wealth generator unless nominal prices rebound or inflation falls. (theglobeandmail.com)
National average sale price fell from $816,720 in February 2022 to $652,941 in January 2026, a nominal decline of roughly 20.0%. (globalnews.ca) Canada’s CPI index moved from 147.30 in February 2022 to about 166.40 in February 2026, a cumulative rise of ~13.0% over that period. (ycharts.com) Applying those series produces an inflation‑adjusted drop of roughly 29% from the February 2022 price peak to early 2026, which is consistent with published estimates that vary slightly by index and timing. (globalnews.ca) Teranet–National Bank’s composite HPI fell 0.5% month‑over‑month and was down 4.4% year‑over‑year in February 2026, with large regional dispersion — Toronto −8.6% y/y and Hamilton −9.1% versus Quebec City +12.1% y/y. (nbc.ca) CREA’s January 2026 report shows sales down 5.8% month‑over‑month, new listings up 7.3%, a national MLS® HPI down 0.9% m/m and a sales‑to‑new‑listings ratio of about 45%, indicating buyer leverage has eased. (crea.ca) Monetary and mortgage context: the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on March 18, 2026 after cutting the overnight rate to 2.25% on October 29, 2025, while prime lending sits near 4.45% and the lowest advertised five‑year variable and fixed products are roughly ~3.35% and ~4.0% respectively across aggregator listings. (bankofcanada.ca) The combination of a ~20% nominal price fall, ~13% cumulative inflation since the 2022 peak, weaker sales and higher supply raises the risk that household equity accumulated during 2020–22 is materially eroded for buyers who purchased at the top, increasing rollover and renewal exposure for high‑LTV borrowers at current market rates. (globalnews.ca)
