CA Democrats Fear GOP Upset in Governor's Race

California's "top-two" primary system, in place since 2012, allows the top two vote-getters in the June primary to advance to the November general election, regardless of their party affiliation. This has set the stage for a potential scenario where a crowded field of at least nine Democratic candidates could split the party's vote, allowing the two leading Republican candidates, former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, to secure both spots on the November ballot. Recent polling shows a tight race, with the top five candidates, including Democrats Katie Porter, Eric Swalwell, and Tom Steyer, alongside Hilton and Bianco, clustered together within a few percentage points. This has amplified concerns within the Democratic party, as a similar vote-splitting scenario in the 2012 primary for the 31st Congressional District resulted in four Democratic candidates splitting the vote and two Republicans advancing to the general election, effectively locking the Democrats out. The financial landscape of the race is equally competitive. Billionaire Tom Steyer has heavily self-funded his campaign, pouring in over $60 million. Republican Steve Hilton has also shown strong fundraising, while Democrats Eric Swalwell and Katie Porter have garnered significant financial support as well. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan is another Democrat to watch, having secured substantial backing from Silicon Valley tech executives. Key endorsements are beginning to highlight the different bases of support for the candidates. Congressman Eric Swalwell has secured the backing of prominent figures like Senator Adam Schiff and several other congressional members, as well as the California Professional Firefighters. Major labor unions, such as the California Labor Federation and the Service Employees International Union, are expected to play a significant role with their endorsements, which could be crucial in helping a candidate break away from the crowded field. On the policy front, affordability and housing are central themes. At a recent debate, Democratic candidates proposed various solutions, including taxing billionaires, implementing rent control, and freezing utility costs. In contrast, some candidates have also pointed to the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) as a barrier to development, suggesting that reforms to this landmark environmental law could be a key to increasing housing supply. The debate over Proposition 13, the 1978 law that limits property taxes, also continues to be a significant issue in California politics. While there is broad acknowledgment of the state's affordability crisis, there are differing opinions on whether to reform Prop 13 to increase tax revenue from commercial properties. These policy debates will likely become more prominent as candidates seek to differentiate themselves in the crowded primary.