Investing.com warns fertilizer price surge
- U.S. nitrogen fertilizer prices kept rising through mid-April even after the April 8 ceasefire, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz stayed far below normal and insurers kept many vessels away. - In Mississippi, 73-year-old farmer Sledge Taylor said he may skip nitrogen on 4,000 acres of corn because prices jumped during the crop’s V3-to-V5 growth stage. - Analysts say the squeeze could hit food prices with a lag, as fertilizer costs feed into yields, acreage choices and grocery inflation into 2027. (farmdocdaily.illinois.edu)
Nitrogen fertilizer prices are still climbing in the United States, even after the April 8 ceasefire tied to the Iran conflict. (farmdocdaily.illinois.edu) University of Illinois farmdoc daily said retail prices for urea, anhydrous ammonia and UAN kept rising through mid-April. The report tied that to weak shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz and insurance barriers that kept shipowners from returning. (farmdocdaily.illinois.edu) Before the conflict, an average of 84.1 ships a day moved through the strait this year. From February 28 through April 7, that fell to 7.2 ships a day, while estimated cargo volume dropped from 3.44 million metric tons a day to 0.20 million. (farmdocdaily.illinois.edu) That waterway matters to farms because nitrogen fertilizer is made from natural gas, and the Strait of Hormuz carries both gas and finished fertilizer. Farmdoc daily said roughly one-third of global seaborne fertilizer volumes pass through it, with shipments concentrated in urea and diammonium phosphate. (farmdocdaily.illinois.edu) On the ground, the squeeze is showing up during spring fieldwork. NPR reported from Panola County, Mississippi, that Sledge Taylor, 73, may skip nitrogen on about 4,000 acres of corn because the price no longer works with current corn prices. (npr.org) Taylor said he normally applies nitrogen when his corn is between V3 and V5, a growth stage in mid-spring that helps set yield potential. He told NPR he is buying diesel “hand to mouth” and had about 1,000 gallons on hand despite storage capacity above 20,000 gallons. (npr.org) The Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that the supply hit has not fully reached food shelves yet. FAO chief economist Máximo Torero said 20% of natural gas and 20% to 30% of fertilizers were not moving out during the disruption, while March food prices rose only modestly because global stocks were still cushioning the shock. (news.un.org) (fao.org) Goldman Sachs Research said more than a quarter of global nitrogen fertilizer trade and about a fifth of liquefied natural gas usually transit the strait. It said the bigger risk for grain prices is not just pricier fertilizer, but delayed application and shifts away from fertilizer-heavy crops like corn. (goldmansachs.com) That crop switch is already part of the 2026 planting picture. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said farmers intend to plant 95.3 million acres of corn and 84.7 million acres of soybeans this year, with several analysts pointing to fertilizer costs as one factor in acreage decisions. (nass.usda.gov) (fb.org) Investing.com, citing Capital Economics, said urea prices have surged by more than 50% and that the inflation effect may peak with a lag, not immediately. Its report said food inflation in the United Kingdom could top 6% by 2027, with peaks near 4% in the United States and eurozone. (finance.yahoo.com) The immediate question is no longer whether the conflict jolted fertilizer markets. It is whether shipping and production recover fast enough for farmers to apply nutrients on time and avoid carrying this spring’s input shock into next year’s food prices. (farmdocdaily.illinois.edu) (news.un.org)
