Used‑EV surge from lease credits
A surge of used electric vehicles is hitting the market after federal lease tax credits shifted inventory — making EVs more accessible to lower‑income buyers but also complicating state charging and incentive planning. The market dynamics could matter for Vermont policy choices about prioritizing used‑EV affordability and rural charging. (autonews.com)
Nearly 1 million electric vehicles were leased from the start of 2022 through March 2025, setting up a large cohort of coming lease returns. (axios.com) U.S. EV lease rates climbed from roughly 15% of sales in 2022 to about 67% by March 2025, concentrating nearly a million units in short-term lease vintages. (cdkglobal.com) Industry analysts project more than 300,000 off-lease EVs could hit the used market in 2026, while Cox Automotive reported U.S. used-EV sales reached about 93,500 in Q1 2026, a 12% increase even as new-EV sales fell 28% year-over-year. (msn.com) Wholesale and retail pricing shifted sharply: CDK Global reported the average used-EV listing price was $36,976 in December 2024, and Cox Automotive data showed a three‑year‑old EV was retaining roughly 40% of its original value at the end of 2025. (cdkglobal.com) The surge traces to tax rules that let commercial/lease transactions capture the up-to-$7,500 clean vehicle credit (IRC 45W), a mechanism lenders used to lower monthly payments for lessees. (pluginamerica.org) Federal used‑vehicle incentives also briefly boosted affordability: the IRS offered a used clean vehicle tax credit of up to $4,000 for dealer purchases priced at $25,000 or less for acquisitions on or before Sept. 30, 2025. (irs.gov) Vermont has $15.8 million in NEVI funds designated for corridor charging, operates a state EVSE grant program funded by the VW mitigation trust plus state appropriations, and recorded more than 400 Charge Vermont applications for Level 1/2 chargers as of January 2025—facts that directly affect where increased used‑EV ownership will concentrate charging demand. (vermontpublic.org) Local incentive details matter for rural access: Vermont guidance and VLCT listings show Level 2 rebates around $750 per port and Level 3/DCFC site support near $10,000, with some program funding limited by county as of mid‑2025. (vlct.org) Vermont’s Climate Action Plan and related state workgroups include a 100% ZEV target by 2035 and explicitly recommend expanding incentives for new and used EVs plus prioritized community and rural charging—policy levers directly implicated by the lease‑return wave. (legislature.vermont.gov)
