Israel threatens ceasefire over disarmament

The Gaza ceasefire is no longer just about stopping fire and swapping hostages for prisoners. It is now being used as leverage to force Hamas to give up its weapons. That is the real change. Israel is signaling that if Hamas refuses, the truce terms may no longer protect Gaza from renewed war, and this week’s strike that killed Azzam al-Hayya — son of senior Hamas negotiator Khalil al-Hayya — made that threat feel immediate. (timesofisrael.com) ### What changed this week? The immediate break came around the disarmament talks tied to the October 2025 ceasefire. A document reported this week says the US-backed “Board of Peace,” which is supposed to oversee postwar Gaza, told Palestinian officials that Israel would not be held(timesofisrael.com)ginal sequence was supposed to include aid, withdrawals, and exchanges before any final political settlement. (timesofisrael.com) ### What is the Board of Peace? Basically, it is the international mechanism the US and partners are using to manage Gaza’s postwar transition. It has been trying to connect reconstruction money, governance, and security arrangements into one package. The catch is that this makes aid(timesofisrael.com)elf. For Hamas, it looks like being asked to surrender first and negotiate later. (timesofisrael.com) ### Why does disarmament jam everything? Because disarmament is not a technical clause. It is the whole war aim in miniature. Israel wants Hamas stripped of military power before any durable end state. Hamas insists it will not discuss that seriously while Israeli forces remain in Ga(timesofisrael.com) up their core leverage first?” That is why talks have stalled so hard. (aljazeera.com) ### Why does Azzam al-Hayya’s death matter? Because Khalil al-Hayya is not some peripheral figure. He is one of Hamas’s main negotiators in the Cairo channel. His son Azzam died on May 7 after an Israeli strike the night before, and Hamas officials said he was the fourth son of Khalil al-Hay(aljazeera.com)at talks are happening under direct coercion. (nbcnews.com) ### Is the ceasefire already over? Not formally. But it is increasingly fragile. The UN warned in late April that strikes, armed activity, and failed disarmament talks were raising the risk of a return to widespread hostilities. The same UN briefing said roughly 800 Palestinians had been killed since the ceasefire began, including more than 200 children, showing that this has not been a clean or stable pause. (dppa.un.org) ### Why is Hamas calling this surrender? Because the proposed order matters. If Hamas disarms before there is a guaranteed Israeli withdrawal, a settled political framework, and a functioning replacement authority, it loses the only hard power it still has. From Hamas’s point of view, that means accepting defeat without binding guarantees. F(dppa.un.org)ns are not just far apart — they are structurally opposed. (aljazeera.com) ### What happens next? The most likely near-term outcome is more brinkmanship — Cairo talks, pressure from mediators, and more Israeli military action meant to raise the cost of refusal. But the longer this framework stays in place, the less the ceasefire looks like a bridge to phase two and the more it looks like an ultimatum wrapped in diplomatic language. (timesofisrael.com) ### Bottom line This story is not just “talks stalled.” It is that the ceasefire’s purpose has changed. Instead of locking in a path out of war, it is now being used to force the war’s unresolved question — Hamas’s weapons — before anything else. If that does not move, the truce may not hold. (timesofisrael.com)