Summer fuel threatens flights

Airlines and airports are warning that a jet-fuel squeeze linked to the Strait of Hormuz could cut flights, raise fares and disrupt summer schedules within weeks. (usatoday.com) The risk is most acute in Europe, where Airports Council International Europe told the European Commission that a “systemic jet fuel shortage” could hit the European Union if stable passage through the strait does not resume by the end of April. (ideastream.org) Jet fuel is refined from crude oil, and the disruption is hitting both ends of that chain: finished fuel cannot move out of Gulf refineries, and crude oil cannot move easily to refineries elsewhere that turn it into aviation fuel. George Shaw of Kpler told National Public Radio that the market is taking a “double whammy.” (ideastream.org) The Strait of Hormuz normally carries about 20% of the world’s oil supply, and the International Air Transport Association said tanker traffic there collapsed by 70% to 80% after the conflict escalated on February 28, 2026. (iata.org) Europe is unusually exposed because 25% to 30% of its jet-fuel demand comes from the Persian Gulf, while commercial inventories typically cover just over one month of demand, according to the International Air Transport Association. (iata.org) The International Energy Agency’s executive director, Fatih Birol, said on April 16 that Europe has “maybe six weeks” of jet fuel left if current conditions persist. (apnews.com) Prices are already moving. EUROCONTROL said the average jet-fuel price in Europe reached $4.73 a gallon on March 27, up 4% in two weeks and roughly double the level at the start of 2026. (eurocontrol.int) Airlines have started responding with route cuts, higher fares, fuel surcharges and bigger baggage fees, according to National Public Radio and USA Today. Even U.S. carriers are exposed because jet fuel is priced in a global market, not a local one. (ideastream.org) (usatoday.com) Europe entered the summer season with traffic still growing: EUROCONTROL counted 27,784 daily flights in the week of March 23 to March 29, up 2.0% from the same week in 2025. That leaves airlines trying to protect peak-season schedules just as fuel supply tightens. (eurocontrol.int) The problem did not start this month. The International Air Transport Association said in August 2025 that Europe’s own jet-fuel production was already falling behind demand as refineries closed and imports filled the gap. (iata.org) That leaves the industry waiting on shipping flows through Hormuz and on how long airlines can keep absorbing higher fuel costs before more summer flights disappear from the schedule. (usatoday.com)