Gaza ceasefire hinges on Hamas disarmament

Nickolay Mladenov said on May 13 that the Gaza ceasefire is holding but stalled at its most consequential point: whether Hamas will give up its weapons. The former U.N. envoy, now the top diplomat overseeing the U.S.-brokered arrangement, said in Jerusalem that disarmament is the condition tying together nearly every unresolved part of the deal, from reconstruction to Israeli troop withdrawals to the shape of a postwar Palestinian administration. His remarks came after a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and as reports from Israeli and pro-Israel outlets described Hamas as trying to preserve or rebuild armed capacity inside the enclave. At the same time, new public allegations from former Israeli hostages about sexual assault in captivity have added another layer of political pressure around any deal with Hamas. ### Why has disarmament become the choke point in the ceasefire? Mladenov said the ceasefire’s next phase cannot move forward while Hamas remains armed. In remarks reported by the Associated Press and carried by PBS, he said Hamas’ obligation to surrender its arsenal is “not negotiable,” and he linked that demand directly to delayed reconstruction, Israeli redeployments and the creation of a new Palestinian government. (pbs.org) The October 2025 ceasefire framework, as described in current reporting, pairs demilitarization with other political and security steps. Those include Israeli withdrawals to a perimeter, a technocratic or transitional Palestinian administration, an international security presence and a large-scale rebuilding effort in Gaza. Mladenov said those elements are meant to unfold together, not sequentially in a way that leaves armed factions in control on the ground. (pbs.org) ### What is Hamas being asked to do — and what is it resisting? The Board of Peace proposal gave Hamas until April 11 to accept a gradual handover of all arms, according to reporting from The Times of Israel. Hamas instead pushed to defer the weapons question into a broader political framework tied to Palestinian statehood, a condition the current Israeli government rejects. (pbs.org) Mladenov has tried to draw a distinction between Hamas as an armed group and Hamas as a political movement. He said Hamas is not being asked to “disappear as a political movement,” but he also said armed factions cannot coexist with a transitional Palestinian authority. That formula suggests mediators are still leaving open some political role for a demilitarized Hamas, even as Israel insists that militias cannot remain in place. (timesofisrael.com) ### What are Israeli and pro-Israel sources saying about Hamas’ current capabilities? FDD’s Long War Journal reported on May 5 that the Israeli military had logged 19 ceasefire violations between April 21 and May 5. The report said Palestinian militants continued attacks and other activity while negotiations over disarmament stagnated. (timesofisrael.com) FDD has also reported in recent weeks that Hamas has continued reconstitution efforts and refused to disarm after the deadline set by mediators. Those reports are not independent verification, but they reflect the assessment circulating in Israeli security and pro-Israel policy circles that Hamas is trying to preserve leverage by keeping some armed infrastructure intact. (fdd.org) ### How do the hostage abuse allegations affect the politics of a deal? NBC News reported on May 14 that several former Hamas hostages have publicly described sexual assault during captivity in Gaza. One former hostage, Guy Gilboa-Dalal, described abuse and said he had been unable to speak about it while in captivity. Those accounts do not alter the formal terms of the ceasefire, but they add to the public and political difficulty of any arrangement that could be seen as legitimizing Hamas without disarmament. (fdd.org) That conclusion is an inference from the timing and content of the reporting, not a stated position in the ceasefire documents. ### What happens next if the deadlock continues? (nbcnews.com) Mladenov said on May 13 that the ceasefire is still in place but “far from perfect,” with violations occurring every day. He did not lay out a new deadline in the reporting reviewed here, but he warned that Gaza’s future would remain blocked without movement on disarmament. The immediate next step is continued mediation between Israeli officials, the Board of Peace team and Palestinian representatives over how, and on what timetable, Hamas would hand over weapons. (nbcnews.com) Any public sign of progress is most likely to emerge from statements by Mladenov, Netanyahu’s office or further reporting on the phased ceasefire talks. (pbs.org)