Europe faces jet‑fuel shock

Europe’s airports are warning that jet fuel could run short within three weeks if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in a stable way. (cnbc.com) Airports Council International Europe sent that warning to European Union transport commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas on April 9, and Reuters reported it on April 10. The group said a “systemic” shortage could hit just as the summer travel peak begins. (reuters.com) The immediate trigger is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf shipping lane that carried about 20% of the world’s oil before the war that began on February 28. Jet fuel prices were up 103% month on month in March, according to the International Air Transport Association. (cnbc.com) Europe is exposed because it already imports more jet fuel than it used to. The International Air Transport Association said in November 2025 that refinery closures had weakened Europe’s fuel resilience and increased dependence on imported supply. (iata.org) Analysts tracking tanker cargoes say the last jet-fuel shipments that cleared Hormuz before the shutdown were due to reach European ports around April 10. After that, incoming volumes were expected to fall sharply unless the route reopened or replacement cargoes were found. (euronews.com) Trade data already showed the squeeze in March. Europe imported 1.064 million metric tons of jet fuel and kerosene by March 24, down from 1.111 million metric tons in all of February, while Northwest Europe jet fuel hit $1,774 a metric ton on March 19, more than double the level a year earlier. (spglobal.com) The risk is landing as European aviation returns to full scale. Eurocontrol said it expected 11.4 million flights in 2026, up 3.1% from 2025, with annual traffic back to pre-pandemic levels across Europe. (eurocontrol.int) Airports and airlines are not saying every route will be cut at once. Euronews reported that carriers and traders expect the first response to be higher fares, fuel surcharges and cuts to marginal routes, while countries with stronger refining systems such as Germany, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands may cope better than others. (euronews.com) European officials have not declared a continent-wide fuel emergency. Reuters reported that the European Commission said the broader oil market remained stable for now, but airports are pressing Brussels to start European Union-wide monitoring before shortages spread from price pressure into physical rationing. (reuters.com) That leaves Europe’s summer schedule hinging on a narrow question: whether Gulf fuel flows restart before airport tanks and import pipelines run too low to keep normal timetables intact. (ft.com)