Local ad forecast improves
BIA raised its 2026 local advertising forecast to $184.5 billion, signalling better near‑term ad demand for local broadcasters and publishers. That doesn’t mean teams will suddenly loosen budgets—buyers are expected to make selective purchases tied to revenue impact (faster clip turnaround, templated social output, and lower production labour per story). For vendors, the practical takeaway is to sell measurable operational outcomes rather than vague AI promises. (tvtechnology.com)
The new number is bigger, but the surprise is where the lift came from: BIA Advisory Services raised its 2026 United States local advertising forecast to $184.5 billion from $181.7 billion after stronger results in mobile, social, video, streaming, and advertising technology. The revised forecast implies about 8.1% to 8.2% year-over-year growth from 2025. (bia.com) This is not just an election-year story. BIA also lifted its 2026 forecast excluding political advertising to $177.1 billion from $173.7 billion, which means the base market improved even before campaign money is added on top. (bia.com) Political money is still a huge part of the jump. BIA says local political advertising in 2026 will reach about $7.4 billion, with broadcast television taking the biggest share and digital platforms, radio, and direct mail also getting a lift. (bia.com) The market BIA is describing is split in two directions at once. Digital channels like mobile, social, and connected television are taking more share because they offer targeting, while broadcast television and radio still hold value because local advertisers use them for reach and trust. (bia.com, tvtechnology.com) BIA’s own language for this is a “K-shaped consumer economy,” which is a fancy way of saying higher-income households are still spending on categories like travel, leisure, and automotive while value-focused households are pushing demand in retail, restaurants, and essential services. That split helps explain why some local categories are growing faster than others instead of the whole market moving in one clean line. (bia.com) The long-term categories BIA flags are real estate, restaurants, travel, retail, and financial services. Those are the kinds of advertisers that buy locally because the customer usually lives nearby, shops nearby, or makes the decision in a specific city. (bia.com) BIA also changed how it counts part of the market. In this update, digital out-of-home advertising was broken out as its own category instead of being lumped into traditional out-of-home, which shows how much local ad buying is moving toward screens, software, and location-based targeting. (bia.com) For local broadcasters and publishers, a better forecast does not automatically mean easy money. Buyers chasing mobile and connected television budgets usually want sharper targeting and clearer measurement, so a station or publisher has to prove not just that it reached people, but which campaign, audience, or workflow produced the result. (tvtechnology.com, bia.com) That is why the practical spending inside local media companies is likely to stay selective in 2026. If a tool cuts clip turnaround from hours to minutes, turns one story into multiple social posts, or reduces editing labor per segment, it lines up with the kind of measurable efficiency advertisers and sales teams now care about. (tvtechnology.com, oaaa.org) BIA’s bigger picture is that local advertising is still expanding even as the mix changes underneath it. The firm says total local advertising will top $221 billion by 2030, so the contest now is less about whether money exists and more about which media companies can connect local scale with targeting, optimization, and measurement. (bia.com, news.radio-online.com)
