AAA forecasts 45 million Memorial Day travelers

AAA said 45 million Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles from home over the Memorial Day holiday period from Thursday, May 21, through Monday, May 25, setting a new record for the weekend. The forecast, published by AAA on May 11, is slightly above last year’s 44.8 million travelers. The group said 39.1 million people are expected to travel by car and 3.66 million by air. Yahoo and local NBC outlets highlighted the forecast again on May 21 as the holiday rush began. ### Why is 45 million getting so much attention? AAA said the 45 million figure is a Memorial Day record and reflects domestic travelers going 50 miles or more from home during the five-day holiday window. The organization said the total is only modestly above 2025, but still enough to set a new high. (newsroom.aaa.com) The comparison point matters because AAA’s 2025 forecast was 45.1 million travelers for the May 22-26 holiday period, while its 2026 forecast says this year is “slightly higher than 2025” at 45 million because last year’s actual count in the 2026 release is listed as 44.8 million. AAA’s framing is based on its own year-over-year holiday dataset. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### How many people are expected to drive? AAA said 39.1 million people are expected to travel by car this Memorial Day weekend. Yahoo, citing AAA, reported that more than 39 million travelers will hit the road despite higher gasoline prices. AAA said driving remains the dominant mode of holiday travel even with fuel costs above last year’s levels. (newsroom.aaa.com) The group also said average ticket prices for flights were lower for travelers who booked early, which helped support air demand without changing the basic split between road and air travel. ### What about flying? AAA said 3.66 million travelers are expected to fly during the Memorial Day period. That leaves the rest traveling by other modes, including buses, trains and cruises, according to the forecast breakdown. ABC News reported that the holiday period is expected to be busy across both highways and airports, and NBC News said storms had already caused more than 1,000 delays within, into or out of the United States as of Thursday morning. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### Are weather and delays already affecting the holiday rush? (newsroom.aaa.com) NBC News reported on May 21 that storms were threatening flooding from Texas to the Northeast and were already disrupting travel. AccuWeather also said millions of people taking Memorial Day trips could face thunderstorms, heavy rain and flash flooding from Texas to New England. (abcnews.com) NBC Bay Area said the travel forecast is record-setting despite higher fuel prices, while News4Jax said the increase from 2025 is less than 1%. Those reports underscored that the scale of travel is rising even as weather and costs create complications. ### What should travelers watch through Monday? (nbcnews.com) AAA’s travel window runs through Monday, May 25. NBC News said storms and flooding threats were already affecting the country on Thursday morning, and ABC News published guidance on the busiest days to fly and drive as the weekend began. (nbcbayarea.com) By May 25, the key markers will be whether the 45 million forecast holds, how many of the 39.1 million drivers encounter congestion, and whether weather-related flight disruptions continue at airports across the country. Those are the benchmarks AAA and national outlets are using to track the holiday travel period. (newsroom.aaa.com)