Egg prices are easing — relief for breakfast menus

Egg prices are easing — relief for breakfast menus Egg prices in the United States are falling fast after a rough winter, giving restaurants their first real cost break in months. New market data and company filings show the spike that squeezed diners, breakfast chains, and independent cafes is finally starting to unwind. (fb.org) The immediate cause of the earlier surge was highly pathogenic avian influenza, the bird disease that wipes out laying flocks and tightens egg supply almost overnight. The American Farm Bureau said 15.5 million birds were affected in January and February 2026, a large hit but still 56% fewer than in the same period of 2025. (fb.org) That distinction matters because egg prices react less like a slow grocery trend and more like a shortage in a tiny, fragile pipeline. When millions of layers are lost, farms cannot replace them instantly, so wholesalers and food buyers compete for fewer eggs and prices jump. (fb.org) Now the pressure is moving in the other direction. Farm Bureau reported that detections slowed in March, while stronger biosecurity, flock rebuilding, and a more coordinated United States Department of Agriculture response helped stabilize supply and calm markets. (fb.org) Federal egg market reports show the same turn. The United States Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Marketing Service said in its April 1, 2026 weekly shell egg demand report that wholesale prices were “sharply lower” as demand faded and supplies improved, and its April 3 market overview showed Midwest large white shell eggs at $1.46 per dozen and the California benchmark at $1.74 per dozen. (ams.usda.gov) That wholesale drop does not mean breakfast menu prices will fall tomorrow morning. Restaurants usually buy through contracts, distributors, and rolling inventory, so cheaper eggs at the farm or warehouse level often take days or weeks to show up in kitchen costs. (ams.usda.gov) Still, the economics are already showing up in corporate results. Cal-Maine Foods, the largest egg company in the United States, said net sales for its fiscal third quarter ended February 28, 2026 fell to $667.0 million from $1.4 billion a year earlier as egg selling prices normalized. (calmainefoods.com) The details inside that filing show how sharp the reset has been. Cal-Maine said conventional egg sales fell 72.1%, with selling prices down 70.1% and sales volume down 6.7%, while total shell egg sales fell 57.5% to $572.3 million. (barchart.com) For restaurants, lower egg prices matter far beyond omelets. Eggs sit inside pancakes, waffles, breakfast sandwiches, batters, sauces, baked goods, and prep recipes, so a cheaper case of eggs can ease pressure across an entire morning menu. (ams.usda.gov) That helps especially at the low end of the market, where diners and quick-service breakfast chains sell high-volume items with thin margins. If a core ingredient swings wildly, operators often absorb part of the increase first, then trim portions, raise menu prices, or cut promotions later. This last point is an inference based on how wholesale egg costs feed through restaurant purchasing and menu planning, rather than a direct statement from the cited sources. (ams.usda.gov) Consumers may not feel immediate relief at the checkout line either. Retail and restaurant prices usually lag wholesale markets, and businesses that raised prices during the winter spike may wait to see whether spring stability lasts before they roll anything back. (fb.org) There is also a reason nobody in the egg business sounds fully relaxed yet. Farm Bureau warned that spring migration still matters because wild birds can spread avian influenza to commercial flocks, which means one bad wave of infections can tighten supply again. (fb.org) For now, though, the market has clearly shifted from panic to rebuilding. Fewer recent detections, recovering production, and sharply lower wholesale prices are giving breakfast operators something they have not had much of since winter began: room to breathe. (fb.org)