Markets wobble, earnings trimmed
Risk sentiment is fragile: the S&P 500 is down roughly 5% since the Iran/Israel/US conflict began and the Nasdaq is about -5.25% YTD, per market watchers. FactSet has trimmed Q1 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth to 12.5% YoY (from prior estimates), signaling analysts are factoring macro and energy headwinds into guidance. ( )
FactSet’s March 19 “Earnings Insight” shows nine S&P 500 sectors have had downward EPS revisions since December 31. (factset.com) The same FactSet note records 50 S&P 500 firms issuing negative EPS guidance and 57 issuing positive guidance for the quarter, and it puts the forward 12‑month P/E for the index at 20.3. (factset.com) Relief headlines on March 23 produced a tactical bounce — the S&P rose 1.15% to close at about 6,581, still roughly 40 points below its 200‑day moving average. (recessionalert.com) Oil volatility swung sharply: WTI plunged roughly 9.5% to $88.87 on the same session as the Hormuz risk premium partially unwound. (recessionalert.com) Sector breadth was uneven — airlines rallied around 4–5%, tech names including Palantir and other AI plays outperformed, while the Energy sector fell more than 6% on the relief move. (recessionalert.com) Fixed‑income and volatility moves reflected the headlines: the 10‑year Treasury yield eased to roughly the mid‑4% range while the 2‑year slid toward the high‑3% area, and the VIX remained in the mid‑20s. (tradingeconomics.com) (markets.financialcontent.com) (finance.yahoo.com) On the corporate front Micron’s fiscal Q2 print — non‑GAAP EPS $12.20 on $23.86 billion revenue reported March 18 — has been a material upside in semiconductor results this month even as analysts flag hefty capex plans. (techpowerup.com) (momoview.com) Company‑level guidance cuts are already visible: Wizz Air trimmed profit guidance after flight suspensions and higher jet‑fuel costs tied to the conflict, and Fitch warned on March 20 that a prolonged Iran war could squeeze margins across hydrocarbons, supply chains and consumer demand. (bloomberg.com) (fitchratings.com)
