HSBC sees 50% chance $125B
- OpenAI closed a $122 billion funding round on March 31 at an $852 billion valuation, undercutting earlier talk of a future $125 billion raise. - HSBC’s earlier note said OpenAI could still need $207 billion of new financing by 2030, even after projecting revenue near $213 billion. - Anthropic raised $30 billion and SpaceX explored a $50 billion IPO, crowding a market already absorbing giant AI deals. (reuters.com)
OpenAI already did most of the raise that social posts were speculating about: it closed a $122 billion funding round on March 31, 2026, at an $852 billion post-money valuation. (openai.com) (cnbc.com) That means the headline question is less whether OpenAI *could* raise $125 billion and more what comes after a round that large. OpenAI said the money will fund chips, data centers, products and broader ownership through bank channels and exchange-traded funds. (openai.com) (cnbc.com) HSBC’s underlying warning was about financing need, not just valuation. In a 2025 research note cited by the Financial Times and other outlets, the bank estimated OpenAI would need $207 billion of new financing by 2030 to cover planned compute and data-center commitments. (datacenterdynamics.com) The bank’s model put OpenAI’s cloud and infrastructure spending at $792 billion between late 2025 and 2030, with total compute commitments reaching about $1.4 trillion by 2033. HSBC also projected roughly three billion regular users by 2030. (datacenterdynamics.com) OpenAI’s own March update gave investors the growth case behind that spending. The company said it is now generating $2 billion in revenue per month and expects to become the fastest platform to reach 1 billion weekly active users. (openai.com) The market around OpenAI has also shifted since HSBC’s note. Anthropic announced a $30 billion Series G round on February 12 at a $380 billion post-money valuation, one of the largest private financings in tech. (anthropic.com) (reuters.com) SpaceX, meanwhile, was reported in January to be weighing a mid-June 2026 initial public offering that could raise as much as $50 billion at a roughly $1.5 trillion valuation. Reuters said the company had recently been valued at about $800 billion in a secondary share sale. (reuters.com) Put together, those numbers explain why HSBC’s scenario spread so quickly online. The issue is not whether capital exists for one giant AI company, but whether public and private markets can absorb several giant offerings while those companies are still spending heavily on compute. (datacenterdynamics.com) (reuters.com) For now, OpenAI has already answered part of that question with cash in hand. HSBC’s remaining question is whether even $122 billion is a waypoint rather than the end of the fundraising. (openai.com) (datacenterdynamics.com)
