China rare-earth pause nears expiry

China’s one-year suspension of expanded rare-earth export controls is halfway through, and the pause is still due to end on November 10, 2026. (finance.yahoo.com) (english.scio.gov.cn) The latest analysis, published Monday by EBC Financial Group and carried by Yahoo Finance, says supply conditions still show little progress in reducing dependence on China. The suspended rules were part of China’s October 2025 export-control expansion. (finance.yahoo.com) (ebc.com) China’s government said on November 10, 2025 that the suspension took effect immediately and would remain in place until November 10, 2026. The announcement covered six measures, most tied to rare earths, including equipment, raw materials, technologies and some medium and heavy rare-earth elements. (english.scio.gov.cn) Rare earths are a group of metals used in permanent magnets, the high-strength components inside electric-vehicle motors, wind turbines, electronics and some weapons systems. The bottleneck is not just mining the ore but separating and refining it into usable material. (bloomberg.com) (finance.yahoo.com) That is where China still dominates. GlobalData figures cited by Yahoo Finance put 2025 global mine output at 390,000 tonnes of rare-earth-oxide equivalent, with China producing 270,000 tonnes, or 69.2% of the total, and processing up to 90% of global rare earths. (finance.yahoo.com) Bloomberg Intelligence said in March that non-Chinese neodymium-praseodymium production could rise 4.4 times between 2024 and 2030, mainly from the United States and Australia. It still forecast a 36% global shortfall in neodymium-praseodymium by 2030 as demand rises about 7% a year. (bloomberg.com) Some restrictions never went away. Yahoo Finance reported that April 2025 controls still require case-by-case export licenses for seven medium and heavy rare-earth elements, including dysprosium, terbium, samarium, scandium and yttrium, plus related metals, oxides, alloys and permanent magnet materials. (finance.yahoo.com) Companies are using the pause to test alternative supply chains. ABx Group said on March 20 that Rare Earth Technologies Inc. in the United States found ABx’s mixed rare-earth carbonate from Tasmania was high purity and suitable for its separation process, and the two sides would discuss supply. (company-announcements.afr.com) (proactiveinvestors.com.au) The calendar now matters as much as the chemistry. Unless Beijing extends the suspension again, the wider export-control pause expires on November 10, 2026, with the market still racing to build processing capacity outside China. (english.scio.gov.cn) (finance.yahoo.com)