Tariffs and refund chaos

U.S. importers are heading into a tariff refund process that is still being built, even as broad American tariffs continue to hit UK exports. (cbp.gov) U.S. Customs and Border Protection said it will launch Phase 1 of its CAPE refund system on April 20, 2026, for some unliquidated entries and some entries within 80 days of liquidation. CBP said the tool is meant to process refund claims for duties imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA. (cbp.gov) Congressional Research Service said importers had paid about $129 billion in estimated IEEPA duty deposits as of December 10, 2025, and about 19.2 million of roughly 34 million affected entries were still unliquidated at that point. CRS said liquidation usually happens within a year of entry and often around 314 days after entry under CBP practice. (congress.gov) That timing matters because CBP says once liquidation has occurred, the main administrative path for relief is a protest filed within 180 days. For entries that have not liquidated, refunds can be handled when Customs makes the final duty calculation. (cbp.gov) The legal backdrop shifted again after the Supreme Court’s February 20, 2026 decision on IEEPA tariffs, and the House of Commons Library said the ruling left the status of some U.S. tariffs on UK goods unclear under the new framework. The same briefing said a 10% tariff still applies to most UK goods entering the United States. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) For British exporters, the tariff map is now a mix of blanket duties and negotiated carve-outs. The Commons Library said the UK-U.S. Economic Prosperity Deal announced on May 8, 2025 has only been partially implemented, with up to 100,000 UK passenger vehicles eligible for a 10% U.S. tariff and possible relief still under discussion for steel, aluminium and some other sectors. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) The UK government had warned from the start that the U.S. tariff package would hit multiple industries. In a statement to Parliament on April 3, 2025, Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the United States had imposed a 10% reciprocal tariff on UK exports, a 25% global tariff on cars, and earlier 25% tariffs on steel, aluminium and derivative products. (gov.uk) At the same time, one Federal Reserve Bank analysis is pushing back on the idea that tariffs alone explain why goods prices remain high. Minneapolis Fed economists wrote on April 8, 2026 that core goods inflation was 1.9% year over year in January 2026, above its pre-pandemic average of negative 0.6%, but that the pattern across product categories does not match where tariffs should have had the biggest effect. (minneapolisfed.org) The Minneapolis Fed note said estimates often put tariff effects at 0.5 to 1 percentage point of inflation, but argued other forces must be lifting some goods prices or muting tariff pass-through in others. That leaves companies dealing with two separate problems at once: the cost of current tariffs and the cash-flow uncertainty of refunds that may arrive only after liquidation, protest, or a new CAPE filing. (minneapolisfed.org) CBP has also moved refunds onto electronic rails, saying on January 6, 2026 that Treasury would stop issuing most paper checks for CBP refunds on February 6. That means importers now need the legal right to a refund and the account setup to receive one. (cbp.gov) The result is a trade system where tariff rates, court rulings, refund mechanics and side deals are all changing on different clocks. For firms that import into the United States or export from the UK, the next deadline is not a negotiation summit but April 20, when the first CAPE window is scheduled to open. (cbp.gov)