U.S. cervical mortality falls 2016–2021

JAMA researchers reported in November 2024 that cervical cancer mortality among U.S. women younger than 25 fell sharply between 2016 and 2021, in findings that line up with the first generation broadly eligible for HPV vaccination. The research letter analyzed National Center for Health Statistics mortality data from 1992 through 2021 and found a steeper decline in recent years than in the prior two decades. The authors said women who were under 25 in the 2016-2021 period were the first cohort widely protected by HPV vaccines. Senior author Ashish Deshmukh of the Medical University of South Carolina said the decline was likely due to vaccination. ### What exactly fell, and by how much? The JAMA paper said 398 cervical cancer deaths were reported among U.S. women younger than 25 from 1992 to 2021. From 1992-1994 to 2013-2015, mortality declined 3.7% per year, the authors found. From 2013-2015 to 2019-2021, that decline accelerated to 15.2% per year. The same analysis showed the death count fell from 55 in 1992-1994 to 35 in 2013-2015 and then to 13 in 2019-2021. (jamanetwork.com) The authors wrote that the recent drop was steeper than would have been expected if the earlier trend had simply continued. ### Why are researchers linking this to the HPV vaccine? (jamanetwork.com) June 2006 was when HPV vaccination was first recommended for routine use in U.S. girls, the JAMA authors wrote. Women who were 25 in 2021 would have been about 10 when the vaccine was introduced, placing the 2016-2021 under-25 group in the first age band with broad vaccine-era exposure. (healthday.com) Ashish Deshmukh said prior studies had already shown declines in HPV infections, precancer and cervical cancer incidence after vaccine introduction, and that mortality was the next measure to examine. The JAMA article cited earlier studies showing a 12% annual decline in cervical cancer incidence from 2012 to 2019 among women younger than 25, with an overall 65% reduction. (jamanetwork.com) The authors did not say the study proved causation on its own. They wrote that this cohort was the first to be widely protected by HPV vaccines, and Deshmukh said his team could not identify another reason for such a marked decline. ### What data did the study use? The researchers used U.S. mortality data from the National Center for Health Statistics and calculated age-adjusted death rates with SEER*Stat, according to JAMA. (musc.edu) They assessed changes over time with the National Cancer Institute’s Joinpoint Regression Program and grouped data in three-year intervals. The paper also estimated what mortality would have looked like without the later break in trend. (jamanetwork.com) Based on that projection, trade and medical coverage of the study reported that 26 additional deaths would have been expected during 2016-2021 if the earlier decline had continued unchanged. ### Does this mean cervical cancer is no longer a concern for young women? The study said cervical cancer in women under 25 is rare, which is one reason the absolute number of deaths was small even before the recent decline. But the authors and outside coverage both framed the finding as an early signal in a young cohort, not the end of the issue. (clinicaladvisor.com) CDC guidance still recommends HPV vaccination at ages 11 or 12, with vaccination starting as early as age 9, and catch-up vaccination through age 26 for those not adequately vaccinated earlier. That recommendation reflects the long lag between infection and many HPV-related cancers. ### Where does HPV vaccination coverage stand now? CDC’s latest adolescent coverage report, published August 14, 2025, said 78.2% of adolescents ages 13 to 17 had received at least one HPV vaccine dose and 62.9% were up to date with the series in 2024. (musc.edu) The report said HPV coverage had remained stable for a third straight year. Healthy People 2030 sets an 80% vaccination goal, and cancer groups including MD Anderson and the American Society of Preventive Oncology have said U.S. coverage remains below that benchmark. (cdc.gov) CDC’s 2025 report also said a geographic gap persisted, with lower HPV vaccination coverage in nonmetropolitan areas than in principal cities. (cdc.gov) August 2026 is the likely window for CDC’s next annual adolescent vaccination update if the agency follows its recent publication schedule, and the JAMA mortality analysis covers data only through 2021. (cdc.gov) (mdanderson.org)