Passage odds for CLARITY Act fall to 49%

Kalshi pricing cited by CoinGape on May 23 showed the implied probability of the CLARITY Act passing before 2027 falling to 49%, down from nearly 75% a week earlier. The move came days after the Senate Banking Committee advanced the legislation on May 14 by a 15-9 vote, according to CNBC and Senate Banking Committee materials. The bill is formally H.R. 3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, and Congress.gov shows it remains in the Senate after House passage last year. ### Why were traders suddenly marking the bill closer to a coin flip? CoinGape reported on May 23 that Kalshi traders cut the probability of passage before 2027 to 49% after a Senate recess and a lack of visible movement toward a broader legislative package. The same report said odds of passage before August 2026 fell to 37% and before July 2026 to 14%. (coingape.com) Those numbers are market prices, not whip counts. Prediction markets reflect what traders are willing to pay based on expected timing and political risk, and they can move faster than formal congressional calendars. CoinGape tied the decline to schedule congestion and unresolved divisions among Republicans over how quickly to move the bill. (coingape.com) ### What exactly is the CLARITY Act? H.R. 3633 is titled the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, according to the bill text on Congress.gov. The measure would create a federal framework for regulating digital commodities and divide oversight responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (coingape.com) The House Financial Services Committee’s section-by-section summary says the legislation is designed to establish definitions, registration pathways and market-structure rules for digital-asset activity. The text also carries the short title “CLARITY Act of 2025.” ### What has actually happened in Congress so far? (congress.gov) The House passed the bill on July 17, 2025, by a 294-134 vote, according to GovTrack and bill-tracking records surfaced in search results. Congress.gov shows the Senate received the measure on September 18, 2025, and referred it to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill on May 14, 2026. (financialservices.house.gov) CNBC reported the panel voted 15-9, with Democratic Sens. Ruben Gallego of Arizona and Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland joining Republicans in support. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott said at the time that it was time to “move this forward and deliver real results for the American people.” (legiscan.com) ### Why is Senate timing more important than the committee vote? The Senate Banking Committee vote cleared one hurdle, but the bill still needs floor time in the full Senate and eventual agreement with the House on final text before it can go to the president. Congress.gov’s bill page does not show a completed Senate floor vote as of May 24. (cnbc.com) Galaxy Digital said in a May analysis that traders had previously lifted passage odds as high as the low 70s while watching negotiations over bill language and committee action. That helps explain why a delay in floor scheduling could hit market odds quickly even after a committee win. ### Are these odds an official forecast from Congress? (congress.gov) Kalshi and Polymarket prices are private-market estimates, not statements from Senate leaders, committee staff or the White House. CoinGape cited Kalshi for the 49% figure, while other market-focused coverage in recent weeks cited Polymarket levels in the high 30s to low 70s depending on timing and contract wording. (galaxy.com) The next concrete signal will come from the Senate calendar, not from a trading screen. Congress.gov will show any new legislative action on H.R. 3633, and the Senate’s next visible milestone would be floor scheduling by Majority Leader John Thune or further public guidance from Chairman Tim Scott and other Senate sponsors. (congress.gov) (coingape.com)