Mike Rogers leads Michigan Senate internal polls

A Democratic internal poll shared publicly on May 14 showed Republican Mike Rogers leading three potential Democratic opponents by narrow margins in Michigan’s 2026 U.S. Senate race. The numbers, first circulated by the Election Time account and reported by Michigan outlets, put Rogers ahead of Abdul El-Sayed 42% to 41%, ahead of Mallory McMorrow 43% to 41%, and ahead of Haley Stevens 42% to 39%. The survey was conducted May 1-7 by MIRS and Mitchell Research & Communications among 607 likely voters, with a stated margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points. The poll landed in an open-seat race that became one of the country’s most closely watched Senate contests after Democratic Sen. Gary Peters said in January 2025 that he would not seek re-election. Michigan Democrats are holding a competitive primary, while Rogers, a former U.S. representative, is the best-known Republican in the field. Senate Majority PAC said on May 14 it was reserving $20 million in Michigan television time for the general election, underscoring the race’s national stakes. (wlns.com) ### Where did these numbers come from? MIRS and Mitchell Research & Communications conducted the survey from May 1 through May 7 among 607 likely Michigan voters. WLNS reported the results on May 14 and said none of the hypothetical general-election matchups fell outside the poll’s 6-point margin of error. RealClearPolling’s Michigan Senate page lists the same toplines for the MIRS/Mitchell survey: Rogers 42%-41% over El-Sayed, 43%-41% over McMorrow, and 42%-39% over Stevens. (freep.com) The page also shows those results alongside earlier polls from Glengariff, Emerson and Detroit News/WDIV-TV. ### Why are people calling it a Democratic internal poll? Election Time described the survey as a Democratic internal poll when it circulated the numbers on May 14, but the publicly available reporting ties the poll to MIRS and Mitchell Research rather than to a campaign memo released by one of the Democratic candidates. (wlns.com) The same poll also measured the Democratic primary, where Abdul El-Sayed led with 28%, ahead of Stevens at 18% and McMorrow at 17%, according to Metro Times and RealClearPolling. (realclearpolling.com) Steve Mitchell, chief executive of Mitchell Research & Communications, was quoted by Metro Times discussing what he said was driving El-Sayed’s movement in the Democratic primary. That reporting suggests the poll was being used to assess both the primary and the general-election landscape at the same time. ### How does this fit with other Michigan Senate polling? (metrotimes.com) A Glengariff Group poll conducted April 28 to May 1 also showed Rogers with small leads over Democratic contenders, according to RealClearPolling. In that survey, Rogers led Stevens 44%-42%, McMorrow 43%-41%, and El-Sayed 45%-40%. RealClearPolling’s listed average as of May 15 showed a tied race between Rogers and Stevens at 43.0%-43.0%, a 1.3-point Rogers edge over McMorrow, and a 3-point Rogers edge over El-Sayed. (metrotimes.com) Those averages indicate a competitive race rather than a breakaway lead for either party. ### Who are the Democrats Rogers could face? Ballotpedia said Michigan Democrats will vote on August 4, 2026, in a primary that includes Abdul El-Sayed, Mallory McMorrow and Haley Stevens, along with Rachel Howard and Travis Zollner. (realclearpolling.com) Ballotpedia described El-Sayed, McMorrow and Stevens as the leading Democratic candidates in polling, endorsements, fundraising and media attention as of May. Abdul El-Sayed is a physician and former Detroit and Wayne County health official who ran for governor in 2018. Mallory McMorrow is a Michigan state senator from Royal Oak. Haley Stevens is a U.S. representative from Michigan who was first elected to the House in 2018. (news.ballotpedia.org) ### What comes next in the race? August 4, 2026, is the date of Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, and the winner will face Rogers in the November general election if he secures the Republican nomination as expected. Senate Majority PAC said its $20 million Michigan television reservation would begin airing in the fall, adding a concrete next spending milestone in the race. (news.ballotpedia.org)