AfD overtakes CDU in polls
- AfD is now leading Germany’s national polling average, with POLITICO’s tracker showing 27% for AfD against 24% for CDU/CSU in late April. - The gap is wider in fresh individual polls: INSA put AfD at 27.5% versus 24% for CDU/CSU, while Forsa had 27% to 22%. - That matters because Germany’s next federal election is not due until spring 2029, so this is pressure on Merz now.
Germany’s poll story is not really about an election next week. It’s about a government that is already in office and losing authority fast. The far-right AfD has moved ahead of Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU bloc in several recent national polls, and in POLITICO’s poll average too. That does not mean AfD is about to govern Berlin. But it does mean Merz is failing at the one political promise that mattered most — shrinking the far right by looking competent. (politico.eu) ### What actually changed in the numbers? The cleanest snapshot is the poll average. POLITICO’s Germany tracker showed AfD on 27% and CDU/CSU on 24% on April 30, 2026. Individual polls are even rougher for Merz. An INSA poll published May 5 put AfD at 27.5% and CDU/CSU at 24%. A Forsa poll around the same time had AfD at 27(politico.eu)politico.eu) ### Why is that such a big deal? Because the CDU/CSU won the February 23, 2025 federal election with 28.5%, while AfD took 20.8%. So the reversal is sharp. AfD is up roughly 6 points to 7 points from election day, while the conservatives are down about 4 points to 5 points in the recent polls. For a governing chancellor, that is the nightmare version of “honeymoon over.” (politico.eu) ### Isn’t the next election far away? Yes — and that’s part of the story. Germany’s next Bundestag election is expected in spring 2029, not this year. So these polls are not a countdown to an imminent national vote. They are a running verdict on whether Merz’s coalition can govern, hold together, and stop bleeding support b(politico.eu)n the official calendar are in September 2026, including Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. (bundeswahlleiterin.de) ### Why is Merz taking the hit? Basically, because voters are seeing drift where he promised control. Merz’s coalition with the SPD has spent weeks fighting over tax, welfare, and health reforms. That kind of coalition friction is normal in Germany — but right now it lands badly because the economy is weak(bundeswahlleiterin.de)e, he looks less like the reset candidate and more like another manager of stalemate. (msn.com) ### Is this mostly an East Germany story? Not anymore. The AfD remains strongest in eastern states, and that is still the base of its power. But recent coverage of the polling shift stresses that the party is also gaining in western Germany. That matters because (msn.com)o look structural. (courthousenews.com) ### Does this mean AfD could enter government? Not at the federal level anytime soon, unless one of Germany’s firewall taboos breaks. The arithmetic in some polls makes strange coalitions numerically possible, but the mainstream parties still reject governing with AfD. So the(courthousenews.com)ing AfD themes and defending the democratic cordon against it. (dawum.de) ### So what should readers watch next? Watch whether the lead sticks across multiple pollsters, and whether September’s state elections turn national frustration into actual AfD victories. If Merz cannot stabilize his coalition before then, every bad regional result will look like proof that the conservative center is not containing the far right — it is feeding it. (bundeswahlleiterin.de) ### Bottom line? AfD overtaking CDU/CSU in polls is not an election result. But it is a warning light flashing red over Merz’s chancellorship — years before Germans have to choose a new Bundestag. (politico.eu)
