Mortgage pain keeps rising
Thirty‑year fixed mortgage rates sit above 6.2% (Bankrate reports 6.27%), and refinance demand has cratered — down about 19% as homeowners react to higher rates. Analysts warn mortgage demand and credit stress could keep rates elevated even if the Fed pauses (bankrate.com) (cnbc.com).
MBA’s weekly survey showed total mortgage application volume fell 10.9% for the week ending March 13, a sharp pullback after four weeks of gains. (mba.org) Refinance activity plunged roughly 19% week‑over‑week but remained about 69% higher than the same week a year earlier. (cnbc.com) Conventional refinance applications dropped about 27% in the same week, per MBA data cited by CNBC. (cnbc.com) Purchase‑loan applications edged up about 1% week‑to‑week and were roughly 12% higher than the same week in 2025, indicating buyer demand held up despite the refi retreat. (mpamag.com) The Federal Reserve held its policy rate steady at the March 18 meeting, removing an immediate policy lever for lowering longer‑term borrowing costs. (cnbc.com) At the same time, 10‑year Treasury yields ticked higher — trading around the low‑4% range — which pushes mortgage pricing independently of the Fed. (cnbc.com) Market participants pointed to the conflict with Iran and a surge in oil prices as the catalysts for rising Treasury yields and renewed inflation worries this month. (cnbc.com) While some forecasters still model average 2026 mortgage rates near the low‑6% range, analysts warning in recent coverage note mortgage costs tend to follow 10‑year Treasury yields and credit‑market spreads — a dynamic that would keep rates elevated even if the Fed pauses cuts. (mortgageresearch.com)
